raising with draws - how much FE needed?

[jay_shark]

There is some missing information . How much does your opponent bet into the pot ? Does he make a pot size bet or a two thirds size bet ?

If he makes a pot size bet , then the amount of fold equity required is :

(3SPR-1)/(3SPR+9) = 8/18 = 44.444% so clearly 62% is too high .

[Dismas]

[ QUOTE ]
There is some missing information . How much does your opponent bet into the pot ? Does he make a pot size bet or a two thirds size bet ?

If he makes a pot size bet , then the amount of fold equity required is :

(3SPR-1)/(3SPR+9) = 8/18 = 44.444% so clearly 62% is too high .

[/ QUOTE ]

I over simplified my example calculation. W = the total amount you would win if called times your equity minus your initial stack size. So if your opponent bets into you and you have to call that bet first you have to factor that into the total amount you would win if called. Pot is the size of the pot after you match opponent’s bet.

Example:
You’re stack size is 250 (opponent has you covered).
Initial Pot size is 50.
Villain bets 50.
You call 50.
Pot = 150 = (50 + 50 + 50)
You’re equity if called is 20%.

W = ((Pot) +200 + 200) * .2 ) – 250 = -140
-140 / (-140 ) – Pot = -140 / -290 = .48275

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is some missing information . How much does your opponent bet into the pot ? Does he make a pot size bet or a two thirds size bet ?

If he makes a pot size bet , then the amount of fold equity required is :

(3SPR-1)/(3SPR+9) = 8/18 = 44.444% so clearly 62% is too high .

[/ QUOTE ]

I over simplified my example calculation. W = the total amount you would win if called times your equity minus your initial stack size. So if your opponent bets into you and you have to call that bet first you have to factor that into the total amount you would win if called. Pot is the size of the pot after you match opponent’s bet.

Example:
You’re stack size is 250 (opponent has you covered).
Initial Pot size is 50.
Villain bets 50.
You call 50.
Pot = 150 = (50 + 50 + 50)
You’re equity if called is 20%.

W = ((Pot) +200 + 200) * .2 ) – 250 = -140
-140 / (-140 ) – Pot = -140 / -290 = .48275

[/ QUOTE ]

Therein lies part of the rub.

The formula derived by OP & JayShark figures the fold equity you need when you come over the top not when you call.

So, in your example, with 20% equity, a 50 final pot preflop, a pot sized bet into you, and 250 effective stacks going into the flop:

1. the SPR is 5 (250 to 50)
2. the 20% formula for a pot sized bet is 3SPR-1/3SPR+9

So, villain needs to fold at least 14/24 or 58.3% when you come over the top to break even for the times when he calls and you are drawing at 20%.

Let's see if it works.

14/24 he folds and you win 100 (the 50 in the pot and his 50 bet)
2/14 he calls and you win 300 (50 in the pot + his 250)
8/14 he calls and you lose 250 (the 250 in your stack on the flop)

1400 + 600 = 2000
8*250 = 2000

Yep, it works.

[SodaSurfer]

[ QUOTE ]
For 40%

(.5*SPR)-1/(.5*SPR)+4

For 50%:

You need zero fold equity to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean with 14-15 outs on the flop, it is generally correct to go All-In? Of course, all 14-15 outs are not always solid, but can someone post a pointer to a discussion thread on the pros/cons of pushing AI with 14-15 outs? Thanks!

[Galwegian]

If you have 15 clean outs on the flop and your opponent has no redraws, then you have approximately 54% chance of having the best hand at showdown - i.e. you have the best hand (in terms of showdown equity). Any time that you have a hand that is favourite to win a showdown, then pushing all in is superior to folding. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that pushing all in is correct. There might be other ways to play the hand that have a higher expected value.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have 15 clean outs on the flop and your opponent has no redraws, then you have approximately 56% chance of having the best hand at showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Run AhAs v 5c6c on a 7c8c2d board on pokerstove (56.3%). Or, do the math [1- (30/45*29/44)] = 56.1%

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have 15 clean outs on the flop and your opponent has no redraws, then you have approximately 54% chance of having the best hand at showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Run AhAs v 5c6c on a 7c8c2d board on pokerstove (56.3%). Or, do the math [1- (30/45*29/44)] = 56.1%

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] You are assuming that you know your opponents cards. So if you don't know the opponents cards, but somehow know that you have 15 outs, then your probability of winning is

1-(32/47)*(31/46) = 0.541165.... or approx 54%.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have 15 clean outs on the flop and your opponent has no redraws, then you have approximately 54% chance of having the best hand at showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Run AhAs v 5c6c on a 7c8c2d board on pokerstove (56.3%). Or, do the math [1- (30/45*29/44)] = 56.1%

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] You are assuming that you know your opponents cards. So if you don't know the opponents cards, but somehow know that you have 15 outs, then your probability of winning is

1-(32/47)*(31/46) = 0.541165.... or approx 54%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but when you assume "clean outs v foe with no redraws," you should use 45 and 44 unseen cards.

Also, see Barry Greenstein's Ace on the River at p. 299 for why 45-44 unseen cards should be used instead of 47-46 even when your foe's cards are hidden.

[jackaaron]

Sorry to bump this these few days later, but has anyone used this over the past few days and could provide further hands, or just experiences.

Are you mostly using this in a tournament setting?