Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[OziBattler]

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:grunch:

Ok, here we go:

1. Odds he has spade is 14/27 = 51.9%.

2. Calling down reasonable? YES – big mistake not to
Scenario 1 – Villain Bet / Bet
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade = +15BB*0.481 = +7.215BB
EV = +6.177BB
Scenario 2 – Villain Bet / Check (50% of time)
a) has spade = -2BB*0.519 = -1.038BB
b) no spade but QQ/JJ = +14BB*0.11 = +1.55BB
c) no spade = +15BB*0.37 = +5.55BB
EV = +6.062BB
So, you lose out on ~6BB by not calling down.

3. Is b/f better than c/c?
No, I can’t see b/f giving a better EV than 6BB.

4. Wider range?
Odds he has spade go to 18/35 = 51.4%...so no real change here
EV on scenario 1 above doesn’t change and scenario 2 EV goes down a little but not enough to change anything.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I havent checked the numbers in detail (14/27 and the extra range not changing much is right though) but in general this looks good and I agree with the sentiment so obviously Ill say Well done. nice grunch.

kudos to Mav too

[Smurph64]

I am curious what is your record versus this guy, since this a read dependant move based on the post?

Let me see some other hands with this guy to see his betting line here, ie 4 flush boards and/or overpairs.

It seems to me something is fishy in Denmark.

[OziBattler]

well even though Ive got lots of hands against this guy it doesnt mean I have any that relate to this spot (im not at home so cant check PT). I would have to go and dig through hands where he has been to SD and look at them....BUT I can tell from this guys stats and betting standards (he doesnt get out of line) that his range is what i told you it is. furthermore, if it is wide than what I suggest it doesnt really matter because even if we add hands to his range it doesnt change the spade percentage.

What Im getting at, and if anyone else wants to agree/disagree with me then Im all ears, is that given his range I think his play can be predicted to the degree which ive eluded to in previous posts on this and I dont think I need a specific example to do it. Remember, he isnt lag he isnt tricky tag he is a tag who doesnt get out of line...if he did I would have a note on him to that effect but I dont (if I did I would have said so in OP).

Maybe Im just being pig headed but Ive done my best to put myself in this villians shoes and Im more convinced than ever that c/c > b/f >>>>>> c/f.

oh and to be clear, its not the 'bet' part of the bet/fold that troubles me...folding if raised is easy peasy.