NL Bots on Full Tilt

[dahlig763]

I didn't see that, ok then. I guess this will just be policed by the players then, but unless there is some new info stated or discussed, I really think the bulk of this thread has run it's course.

[doylefish]

Its should be pretty easy to crack their system.

Someone should build a bot to defeat it.

[lemming]

yeah, definitely... let's all build bots and let them fight each other!

[blackize]

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Yeah but it isn't "clear cut" in anyway, the stats are insane, but after a month of FTP investigating with the resources they have, they found no violations.

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If you read the other thread it seems that FTP's investigation was not even as thorough as the OP's in this thread.

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The speculation has had some pretty decent evidence, but any defense lawyer would have a cake walk if this were a court case.

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Criminals get convicted on even more circumstantial and suspect evidence than this.

The FT investigation was unable to determine if these players are bots or humans. If you read between the line this means that they believe these players are bots but don't have enough evidence to be sure and seize their funds. They did handle things improperly IMO by allowing them to continue to play. They should have been given their money and IP banned.

[doylefish]

From now on, to make it easy to reference this group in a name, I think they should be called the Pittsburgh PowerRangers.

[BlueBear]

A posted in the probability forums about the dangers of easily misusing a poorly designed statistical test to verify that they are from the same player.

>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>.

These statistics alone are not enough to "prove" that they are from the same player. You can't use a "simple" hypothesis testing procedure like a chi-squared test, and that won't indicate anything. A statistician examining the likelihood they are from the same player needs to have to other peoples stats and see how they behave. How much do these stat differ across 100k+ hands tight-nitty players?

There is a second issue with that there may be some correlation in some of the variables. For example, the "flop aggression", "bet flop", "raise flop" and "c/r flop" are connected to each other and a player with a high "flop aggression" will reasonably have high stats in the other 3 categories. An analysis of the likelihood they are the same player must have any correlation effect isolated. How these correlated variables behave in reality can be examined by studying the correlation of other 100k+ hands players.

Extreme care must be taken to conduct any probability tests and it is too easy to use a poorly-designed statistical test that does not consider the matters I outlined above. This is a formidable full-time task and should be undertaken by somebody with a solid postgraduate education in statistics (or having similar experience). I am not defending anybody here, but it is too easy to get carried away and it is easy to "prove" they are from the same player, but such test would lack mathematical rigority.

I'm not a statistician/mathematician but these are just my views.

[goofball]

The reason people are so adamant is their b.s. detectors are going off. We're poker players after all (some of us) Many of whom make their living putting together people's stories and noticing when they don't add up. The story of nation/nlnut/whoever just doesn't quite add up.

[Jurrr]

Just to add my $0.0002, I think there is most likely botting going on. Given how inhumanly similar those stats are I don't buy the sweatshop explanation. It is statistically extremely improbable that 4 humans achieve stats as similar, whether they have instruction books and canned responses to situations or not.

[TheTruthSpeaks]

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Was the question addressed anywhere in this thread about why, if this is a sweatshop, they take 10-15 seconds to make very simple decisions?

This doesn't all add up to me.

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Have you ever multi-tabled? Doesn't sound like it.

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DWarrior, I just looked and you have like 80+ posts in this thread. Since your life is revolving around this thread, it makes me very suspicious that you are or want to become a part of this shady activity. The fact that you are sympathizing with the bot/ sweatshop owners seem to verify this. Wonder what we'd find if you were investigated?

[Arnfinn Madsen]

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The story of nation/nlnut/whoever just doesn't quite add up.

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Yes, that's what I think as well. There is no physical evidence that they have done something wrong, but it is inconceiveable that somebody that were innocent would behave like they do in this thread. They continuously have to adjust info and they also repeatedly try to take focus away from the main issues. Maybe they aren't bots, but something smells very fishy.