Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[Nicholasp27]

and i also have taken a big part of the blame for this game, btw

my afkness caused me to be the 'autolynch'

and then if i had noticed stephen's peeks yesterday i coulda pointed out that wolves thought he was seer and waited to kill him

that may have been enough to get nez/zurvan on my side

[Nicholasp27]

do u agree with this statement: "if someone isn't 100% seer cleared, they should be considered a potential target"

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
do u agree with this statement: "if someone isn't 100% seer cleared, they should be considered a potential target"

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, traz was 100% seer cleared.

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
how many wolves were left when stephen peeked me? one was silencer so couldn't manipulate...so maybe 2-3 that could try to harm stephen's peeks?

so i was like 50-60% seer-cleared? u/traz were 70-80%? nez/herbie were 0%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nich: all that needed to happen was you as a wolf manipulate Stephen's peek of you to show you as a villager. That's what I figured was happening, so I was disregarding seer peeks after everybody came out.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
do u agree with this statement: "if someone isn't 100% seer cleared, they should be considered a potential target"

[/ QUOTE ]

I do. But here's the thing, it is a viable, though possibly inferior, strategy to leave a confirmed for the final three if you think that either:
1. it will confuse or mislead the village substantially or
2. the confirmed is not likely to make the correct decision

Edit - I misread and was thinking of wolf target.

In my mind traz was 100% seer cleared too. (It's not that it was impossible for him to be a wolf, as I read along I considered that, but that when you look at the conditional probabilities you just couldn't overcome the strong liklihood that kyro was a useful seer. That is, that point in his favor made it pretty much impossible, given the situation, to lynch traz, or zurvan for that matter.)

[Nicholasp27]

how can someone be 100% seer cleared in this game?

they can't be

he was 80% by the math

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
how can someone be 100% seer cleared in this game?

they can't be

he was 80% by the math

[/ QUOTE ]

More than 80%, because even if Kyro was not useful, he could have gotten traz right.

[Neil S]

Since we weren't given the exact numbers of each kind of seer, and because so many people died with unknown seer types, you can't say he had any percentage chance of being one kind of seer or another.

You can only do the math the other way: he only had N% chance of getting these peeks assuming he was this or that type.

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
how can someone be 100% seer cleared in this game?

they can't be

he was 80% by the math

[/ QUOTE ]

I found it far more likely the wolves left traz/myself alive to get one of us lynched than kyro was a useless seer. Between that and my read that traz was a villager, I considered it 100%.

[traz]

nich, here's the distinction I'm making. I was a potential target, but I wasn't lynchable. There is a difference. Even if someone isn't 100% cleared, they may well be close to 100% unlynchable