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#71
09-20-2007, 07:20 AM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
a few hundred hands, jesus, even cows can fly during that time.
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#74
09-21-2007, 05:30 AM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
I've been thinking about this a lot since I heard of it a few hours ago. And I've got a theory, if you guys wanna hear it. If not, just skip this post, you'll probably save yourself some time *laugh*
So my biggest problem with the whole idea here is that the guy is so obviously stupid. Playing every hand, folding only when they have QQ, KK, AA? Things like this eventually are going to get noticed. Even an idiot would have to realize that playing this way would be a sure fire way to get caught...... So that led me to think, what kind of person would have this kind of ability, but be so damned stupid? A) Hacker B) Employee C) Luckiest SOB in the world. I discounted A, because it's been reported that multiple accounts had similar statistics. (And I think it's unlikely anyway). B seems the most probable, with perhaps a little of C thrown into the mix as well. So here's my theory: Employee notices a breach in security that allows "superpass" access, where you can see hole cards. He doesn't know how long it will last, or if it will be caught. Thus, he gives this access to an arbitrary number of new accounts (Let's say 10). People which he has no connection to at all. He also gives this access to one of his friends who's been playing on the site for a while and does well normally. Now if you're signing up for a poker site, what would your reaction be if you could see hole cards? Would you play just a little over your head and fold/call only the tough decisions? Or would you go for broke right away because you don't know how long it will last? I'm sure that some people would get greedy and try to smash and grab, because they don't know when it's going to stop. (This explains the OBVIOUS chip-dumping and too-perfect play) Meanwhile, employee's friend is playing the same exact poker that he was playing, only every REALLY tough decision, he's making the right play. I'm not talking every showdown, or every hand. I'm talking AA on a 484 board when your opponent shoves. Does he have 9s? Or 8s? We've all had those hands. IMAGINE IF YOU WON EVERY ONE. Now, eventually either it's going to get caught by the system, or you're going to hear about it on the net. If it's the former, they will most likely chalk it up to a bug for new accounts, while going after the money that they can recover. If it's the latter, you'll see rumors on places like this. As soon as either happens, take your friend's access away. He keeps playing the same exact style he always has, but without the help. Looks from a statistical point of view as just a good heater, right? So while the powers that be are out looking for the idiots who played the way that the smash and grabbers did, very quietly your friend made you BOTH a lot of money. I just can't believe that somebody who's "in" on the deal would play so badly, EVEN IF THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW LONG THE SCAM WOULD GO. Seriously, if you had a 3 hour window where you could see hole cards, would ANY of you AT ALL play this obviously? It takes a special kind of stupid.....
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#75
09-21-2007, 07:12 AM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
[ QUOTE ]
I've been thinking about this a lot since I heard of it a few hours ago. And I've got a theory, if you guys wanna hear it. If not, just skip this post, you'll probably save yourself some time *laugh* So my biggest problem with the whole idea here is that the guy is so obviously stupid. Playing every hand, folding only when they have QQ, KK, AA? Things like this eventually are going to get noticed. Even an idiot would have to realize that playing this way would be a sure fire way to get caught...... So that led me to think, what kind of person would have this kind of ability, but be so damned stupid? A) Hacker B) Employee C) Luckiest SOB in the world. I discounted A, because it's been reported that multiple accounts had similar statistics. (And I think it's unlikely anyway). B seems the most probable, with perhaps a little of C thrown into the mix as well. So here's my theory: Employee notices a breach in security that allows "superpass" access, where you can see hole cards. He doesn't know how long it will last, or if it will be caught. Thus, he gives this access to an arbitrary number of new accounts (Let's say 10). People which he has no connection to at all. He also gives this access to one of his friends who's been playing on the site for a while and does well normally. Now if you're signing up for a poker site, what would your reaction be if you could see hole cards? Would you play just a little over your head and fold/call only the tough decisions? Or would you go for broke right away because you don't know how long it will last? I'm sure that some people would get greedy and try to smash and grab, because they don't know when it's going to stop. (This explains the OBVIOUS chip-dumping and too-perfect play) Meanwhile, employee's friend is playing the same exact poker that he was playing, only every REALLY tough decision, he's making the right play. I'm not talking every showdown, or every hand. I'm talking AA on a 484 board when your opponent shoves. Does he have 9s? Or 8s? We've all had those hands. IMAGINE IF YOU WON EVERY ONE. Now, eventually either it's going to get caught by the system, or you're going to hear about it on the net. If it's the former, they will most likely chalk it up to a bug for new accounts, while going after the money that they can recover. If it's the latter, you'll see rumors on places like this. As soon as either happens, take your friend's access away. He keeps playing the same exact style he always has, but without the help. Looks from a statistical point of view as just a good heater, right? So while the powers that be are out looking for the idiots who played the way that the smash and grabbers did, very quietly your friend made you BOTH a lot of money. I just can't believe that somebody who's "in" on the deal would play so badly, EVEN IF THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW LONG THE SCAM WOULD GO. Seriously, if you had a 3 hour window where you could see hole cards, would ANY of you AT ALL play this obviously? It takes a special kind of stupid..... [/ QUOTE ] Why would the hacker give the super accounts to random people? Maybe he wanted to make sure that they wouldn't be caught instantly somehow? Or to distance himself if the accounts did get caught? If there is a good reason for that then your theory seems reasonable. I never thought about how the accounts we saw could have been playing that way because they were unsure how long it would last. Good Post.
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#76
09-21-2007, 12:57 PM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
[ QUOTE ]
Why would the hacker give the super accounts to random people? Maybe he wanted to make sure that they wouldn't be caught instantly somehow? Or to distance himself if the accounts did get caught? If there is a good reason for that then your theory seems reasonable. I never thought about how the accounts we saw could have been playing that way because they were unsure how long it would last. Good Post. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. If it's just one person, and they get caught right away, it'd be pretty easy to find a connection between that one account and you. By creating a false connection (new accounts on a certain day), you'd be setting up a pattern that your friend does not fit into. Also, you'd make it less likely that they would dive into "who knows who" the more people that are involved. If you're willing to rip off your company, it's not much of a stretch to figure that you wouldn't care if other people did too. Gotta throw off that trail.....
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#77
09-21-2007, 01:42 PM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
I have seen that hand history posted several places, but to me it raises a serious question: Why would someone who could see the cards call as only a 3-1 favorite? Admittedly it was the other player all in, but why not simply let the hand go and get them all in when a bigger favorite?
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#78
09-21-2007, 01:49 PM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
[ QUOTE ]
: Why would someone who could see the cards call as only a 3-1 favorite? [/ QUOTE ] lol. you lose
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#79
09-21-2007, 10:42 PM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
[ QUOTE ]
I have seen that hand history posted several places, but to me it raises a serious question: Why would someone who could see the cards call as only a 3-1 favorite? Admittedly it was the other player all in, but why not simply let the hand go and get them all in when a bigger favorite? [/ QUOTE ] Lol? With perfect information and a decent risk tolerance, you should be calling as a 51-49 favorite. (granted that doing that will probably expose you as a cheater, but still).
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#80
09-21-2007, 11:37 PM
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Re: X-Post Absolute Poker Hole Card Cheating
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have seen that hand history posted several places, but to me it raises a serious question: Why would someone who could see the cards call as only a 3-1 favorite? Admittedly it was the other player all in, but why not simply let the hand go and get them all in when a bigger favorite? [/ QUOTE ] Lol? With perfect information and a decent risk tolerance, you should be calling as a 51-49 favorite. (granted that doing that will probably expose you as a cheater, but still). [/ QUOTE ] With perfect information and a bankroll, you should be calling as a 3-1 dog. You'll get it back soon enough anyways and you look far less suspicious. We're trying to maximize $, not Sklansky bucks here.
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