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#11
10-07-2007, 09:08 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
A 16/13 is probably not going crazy w/ AQ here and probably 3-betting AKs pf and is not going crazy even with that on this flop 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, ur probably too much behind a rang from a 16/3 nit. 
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#13
10-07-2007, 09:18 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
I probably just call the flop since you have some showdown value, unless you think MP will fold AQ/KQ to your raise (and I certainly woundn't be very confident of that)
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#14
10-07-2007, 09:34 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
i generally just call the flop
as played shove shove shove
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#15
10-07-2007, 10:30 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
I just call the flop. Fold now. Calling is probably ok too since you're getting decent odds and I don't think he has a fd.
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#16
10-07-2007, 10:47 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
What? I'm so confused. Why would we fold now? Am I going crazy?
This is an easy peel wtf people. You really think people are c/f sets when turn comes a spade.
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#17
10-07-2007, 10:55 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
What? I'm so confused. Why would we fold now? Am I going crazy? This is an easy peel wtf people. You really think people are c/f sets when turn comes a spade. [/ QUOTE ] We have to call like $90 more so I don't know if we have odds or not.
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#18
10-07-2007, 11:18 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
What? I'm so confused. Why would we fold now? Am I going crazy? This is an easy peel wtf people. You really think people are c/f sets when turn comes a spade. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I'll do the calc. Assuming he always has a set and always stack off with it (bet/call turn). We're always folding the turn if we miss our flush. 0.19*0.78*(242 + 210) - 0.81*88 - 0.19*0.22*298 = -$17
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#19
10-07-2007, 11:26 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What? I'm so confused. Why would we fold now? Am I going crazy? This is an easy peel wtf people. You really think people are c/f sets when turn comes a spade. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I'll do the calc. Assuming he always has a set and always stack off with it (bet/call turn). We're always folding the turn if we miss our flush. 0.19*0.78*(242 + 210) - 0.81*88 - 0.19*0.22*298 = -$17 [/ QUOTE ] I thought you had to do the total pot size [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I can't imagine calling 45 more bb's when we're 200 bb's deep when he's ALWAYS bet/calling a flush can be -EV. Guess I'm wrong though.
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#20
10-07-2007, 11:32 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
I thought you had to do the total pot size [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] In that case this would be the calc for a bet on a coinflip, both wages $100. 0.5*200 - 0.5*100 = +$50 You could do a calc with the total potsize, but in that case you need to assume you're always losing the money you put in the pot, but win it back the times you outdraw him.
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