Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?

gaming_mouse · #1 07-30-2007, 03:39 AM

30/60 Stars (Schneids Video 2, ~2:45)

BTN raises, Schneids calls BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Schneids c/r, guy calls. How often do you make this bluff on this kind of board?

Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Schneids bets, guy raises, Schneids calls

This call confused me a bit. Even with implied odds, we don't have enough for our gutshot. Our pair outs might be good sometimes, but if we are calling down when we hit them we have to factor in reverse-implied odds, so.....

I did the math and, assuming that we average 1.5 bets profit when we hit our gutshot on the river, and assuming that we plan to cd on a river J or 9, our J/9 outs need to be good about 20% of the time to break even.

20% seems somewhat reasonable, but it is certainly close and the call might be losing.

So... are there strong meta-game reasons for making a call like this? Other considerations?

J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

River goes check, check, but I assume Schneids is calling a bet here?

PokerBob · #2 07-30-2007, 04:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
30/60 Stars (Schneids Video 2, ~2:45)

BTN raises, Schneids calls BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Schneids c/r, guy calls. How often do you make this bluff on this kind of board?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo this is 100% villain dependent. if villain will look at this board and think "there are no draws here, so mike must have a pair", then i'd c/r just about always.

milesdyson · #3 07-30-2007, 05:40 AM

"River goes check, check, but I assume Schneids is calling a bet here?"

i wouldn't assume that.

he's getting a little over 7 to 1 on the turn, right? i think implied odds are a bit better than 1.5 to be honest. you can't really discount the Td much because when it isn't good it is more likely you have an additional four pair outs (obviously would be even "more true" had the flop been 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

it all depends on the frequency w/ which he's fsdring a hand against which you have the additional outs. if he's never doing that it looks -ev at a glance. if he has these hands say 10% of the time, the additional value to the turn call is (arbitrarily assuming 4 additional outs) 0.1*(4/46)*7bb = 0.06bb. that is tiny. is this math wrong? because now it looks fairly unrealistic to think this happens enough to make up the missing odds...

DeathDonkey · #4 07-30-2007, 06:10 AM

This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

gaming_mouse · #5 07-30-2007, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Expecting that villain folds outright?

EDIT: DD, don't you think this turn card could be inspiring a number of semi bluffs that really hurt your fold equity?

Entity · #6 07-30-2007, 02:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

On a double broadway board I think you'll see too many either legit hands or hands that were stupid to raise the turn that now realize they've picked up outs and have to call the 3bet. So you're committing yourself to a 4BB bluff when you do this and I think the risk:reward ratio isn't nearly good enough to do that.

Rob

baronzeus · #7 07-30-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

el
oh
el

PokerBob · #8 07-30-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

what hands that are (a) better than ours and (b) not commited to a SD does villain fold if we bet/3bet this turn?

veganmav · #9 07-30-2007, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

you are leveling right?

gaming_mouse · #10 07-30-2007, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

it all depends on the frequency w/ which he's fsdring a hand against which you have the additional outs. if he's never doing that it looks -ev at a glance. if he has these hands say 10% of the time, the additional value to the turn call is (arbitrarily assuming 4 additional outs) 0.1*(4/46)*7bb = 0.06bb. that is tiny. is this math wrong? because now it looks fairly unrealistic to think this happens enough to make up the missing odds...

[/ QUOTE ]

miles,

you may be right here. if villain is fsd'ing 10% of the time we are breaking even:

.8*-1 + .08*9 + .12*(.1*7.5) = .01