Independants and Primaries

[lehighguy]

So I went to check my stats primary system, and it is closed. In addition, I noticed this is the norm accross the board. Since a majority of Paul's support is independent, and you can't change registration on election day, are we [censored]?

[Borodog]

You change change up until some deadline. Find out your deadline and if it hasn't passed, change immediately.

[lehighguy]

Yes, I'm aware of that, I'm referring to Paul's chances. Basically he is hoping for a huge surge of independents leading right up the election.

How many potential Ron Paul followers are going to register by December, how many people will hear of Paul by December.

[Borodog]

As many as possible. That's the best we can do.

[ALawPoker]

It's a reasonable enough concern, but when you consider the possibility of RP actually contending, you have to consider that his base therefore expanded to include mostly people other than the type of people who aren't particularly likely to have already registered or need to cross over. We only seem like a critical demographic right now, but he's not gonna actually win if most of his votes don't come from traditional Republicans.

It certainly doesn't help, but long story short, RP is a quirky enough situation where I would say this isn't a significant concern for strictly winning vs. not winning. Basically either the snowball takes off in time or it doesn't (sounds dumb but I think that sums it up). If he doesn't make as much noise as we hope he does, then what you're talking about will certainly skew what his result could have been if the voting was more flexible. The message is so powerful though that I really feel like the demographic situation is most likely to not come into play. If it resonates it moves pretty quick.