Why would he do this?

Saborion · #1 06-30-2006, 03:31 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Villain is 18/15, with AF 4.7/4.0/1.3 and WSD 19/57 after 270 hands.

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises

Now what? He seems to be very aggro, so what do you think he CR with? AA, KK, AK, KQ should be in his range. What about 88? AQ? It is a rainbow board. Given his high AF and low WSD it appears as though he may be one of those players who raises for information and folds if someone tells him he's beat? Please help me put this guy on a range of hands, likely as well as possible (although I guess possible is where knowing your player kicks in huh?), and what you would do in this situation. If you call, what do you do on the turn and river etc.

kapw7 · #2 06-30-2006, 03:52 AM

You showed strength PF and yet he c-r's a K-hi flop.
He is 18/15. I think you are beaten here most of the times.

That said I think it would be worth very occasionally (like 1 out of 10 or less) to 3-bet the flop to keep him honest and maybe sometimes make him fold JJ/QQ.

giddyup · #3 06-30-2006, 03:53 AM

i like a reraise here - and b/f a non-broadway turn. i agree that a lot of players like this tend to c/r turns for information. another option would be to call and raise a non-broadway turn....

Kwaz · #4 06-30-2006, 04:32 AM

If you think he's hinky, I like the flop 3bet and bet/fold turn line.

MacGuyV · #5 06-30-2006, 07:48 AM

I like a free showdown turn raise over a flop 3bet; unless you would normally 3ball AK.

Peter Harris · #6 06-30-2006, 07:55 AM

given the low WSD, high aggro, i think what you can do is either 1) 3bet the flop, fold to a cap or 2) call the flop raise, raise the turn, fold to a 3bet or take a free SD if called and checked to on the river.

I think i actually prefer the former over the latter in this case.

Nick C · #7 06-30-2006, 08:09 AM

Wow, that's a low WtSD over 270 hands -- maybe partly because he's bullying other people into folding? How long does it take for WtSD to become somewhat reliable?

I don't know what you should do. His flop and turn aggros are so ridiculously high so far that I don't want to fold. But at the same time QQ/JJ don't really seem that likely (he didn't cap preflop, for starters -- which isn't conclusive but is evidence), and there's no guarantee we can push him off of those hands even if he has them.

I'll admit that I generally try not to get into battles over who can put in that one extra raise-fold versus guys this aggro. I would probably just start calling down. But, jeez, I guess he could just have AJ, and if he does, you wouldn't mind pushing him off of that.

Saborion · #8 06-30-2006, 09:20 AM

No one is mentioning a fold?
Assuming he'll bet the turn and river we're getting ~7:2.5 in effective odds. So we need to win approx. 26 % (2.5/(7.25+2.5 ), right?) of the time to break even.

We'll hit a T 10 % of the time and it should make us a winner close to 100 % of the time. So, does that mean that we can subtract 10 % from the 26 % needed to break even, meaning we only need to be ahead here roughly 16-17 % to break even?

I'm bad at calculating stuff like this. I have a tendency to think more like "I'm probably beat here, I should fold" at the tables. Time to fix that.

Nick C · #9 06-30-2006, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No one is mentioning a fold?
Assuming he'll bet the turn and river we're getting ~7:2.5 in effective odds. So we need to win approx. 26 % (2.5/(7.25+2.5 ), right?) of the time to break even.

We'll hit a T 10 % of the time and it should make us a winner close to 100 % of the time. So, does that mean that we can subtract 10 % from the 26 % needed to break even, meaning we only need to be ahead here roughly 16-17 % to break even?

I'm bad at calculating stuff like this. I have a tendency to think more like "I'm probably beat here, I should fold" at the tables. Time to fix that.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5.25 BBs in the pot after you get checkraised on the flop. It's (usually) going to cost you 2.5 BBs from that point on to show down, if you start calling down. So you're gettting 7.25 to 2.5 (well, minus rake), or almost 3:1. (The percentage you arrived at seems about right, but I'm confused as to how you got that 26 percent.)

Saying you need to be ahead about 16 percent of the time isn't really accurate since if you're ahead, Villain can improve. In fact, I'm thinking he'll have the best of the outs on average. However, you should at least have some implied odds on spiking a T, which helps a little.

Saborion · #10 06-30-2006, 10:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one is mentioning a fold?
Assuming he'll bet the turn and river we're getting ~7:2.5 in effective odds. So we need to win approx. 26 % (2.5/(7.25+2.5 ), right?) of the time to break even.

We'll hit a T 10 % of the time and it should make us a winner close to 100 % of the time. So, does that mean that we can subtract 10 % from the 26 % needed to break even, meaning we only need to be ahead here roughly 16-17 % to break even?

I'm bad at calculating stuff like this. I have a tendency to think more like "I'm probably beat here, I should fold" at the tables. Time to fix that.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5.25 BBs in the pot after you get checkraised on the flop. It's (usually) going to cost you 2.5 BBs from that point on to show down, if you start calling down. So you're gettting 7.25 to 2.5 (well, minus rake), or almost 3:1. (The percentage you arrived at seems about right, but I'm confused as to how you got that 26 percent.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, it costs us 2.5 BB's to win 7.25 BB's. So we're getting 7.25:2.5 = 2.9:1 in effective odds. We need to win one time out of every 3.9 times to break even, right? 1/3.9 ~ 26 %. If the pot is $x and it cost us $y to call, we need to win y/(x+y) to break even. $10, cost us $5. 5/15 = 1/3. Am I doing it wrong?

[ QUOTE ]

Saying you need to be ahead about 16 percent of the time isn't really accurate since if you're ahead, Villain can improve. In fact, I'm thinking he'll have the best of the outs on average. However, you should at least have some implied odds on spiking a T, which helps a little.

[/ QUOTE ]
Right. So in order to call down here we would have to be ahead more than something like 22 %? in order to call down profitably?