#1
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Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
Blinds = 50/100
I have 11k, button has 2200, I open UTG+1 to 300, 9-handed w/ AKo, button calls, folds around. Flop: KQJ all [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, I do not have Ah I c/f to a pot sized bet of 750. Thoughts? |
#2
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
If Villain had like 5000, this would be ok. As is, I think he's too short for you to get away here. Bet-call or CRAI.
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#3
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
Yo, foucault. Assigning a betting range for villain would be very helpful.
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#4
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
Eh, I would never check fold here ever against some random online player. People are just bad. This bet is the Ahx, lots of pairs with a heart, two pair hands, maybe low flush but unlikely. Think we can rule out any set. I guess T9 and AT are possible, but we still have 4 outs vs 9t and 3 chop outs vs at.
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#5
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
need ~42% to breakeven and are ~44% vs. this range.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 109,890 games 0.016 secs 6,868,125 games/sec Board: Kh Qh Jh Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.353% 38.42% 05.94% 42216 6523.50 { AcKd } Hand 1: 55.647% 49.71% 05.94% 54627 6523.50 { TT, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o } seems like a fold to me as this range is pretty loose and i don't know if all of these hands pot it. i feel like some of them may check behind or bet like 400-500 or something. |
#6
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
[ QUOTE ]
need ~42% to breakeven and are ~44% vs. this range. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 109,890 games 0.016 secs 6,868,125 games/sec Board: Kh Qh Jh Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.353% 38.42% 05.94% 42216 6523.50 { AcKd } Hand 1: 55.647% 49.71% 05.94% 54627 6523.50 { TT, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o } seems like a fold to me as this range is pretty loose and i don't know if all of these hands pot it. i feel like some of them may check behind or bet like 400-500 or something. [/ QUOTE ] Well, i wouldn't include 9To, or it at least has to be significantly discounted imo. most people will fold 9to preflop. If you take out 9To, we have about 48% equity. |
#7
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
Ehh, I really don't like the range you assigned much and that isn't the best-case scenario range either. Putting full combos of ATo and T9o in villain's range is pretty generous, and putting in stuff full combos of KT/QT/JT and even some of the stronger hands that we are beating is unrealistic.
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#8
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
[ QUOTE ]
Think we can rule out any set. [/ QUOTE ] Because of pf/our holding or because sets don't pot monotone flops? |
#9
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Think we can rule out any set. [/ QUOTE ] Because of pf/our holding or because sets don't pot monotone flops? [/ QUOTE ] preflop |
#10
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Re: Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board
People wouldn't flat AA-TT here? I don't think we can discount this as much as you think.
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