Winrate vs. variance thread...how much would you pay to not lose?

AZK · #1 05-20-2006, 08:41 PM

This has been done before in the limit forum by jay, it was a long time ago and i cant find the thread, anyway...i began thinking how much happier i would be playing poker if i knew that everytime i played i won regardless of my playing ability, cards, tilt, beats, etc... obviously this is pretty obvious and stupid since it doesn't happen, so naturally, I started thinking about how much money i would be willing to part with if it meant every session I played was in the green. I'm trying to come up with a number here or a % of my current hourly that i would be willing to cut if it meant i won everytime. Obviously this isn't a big deal for people that don't mind the ebb and flow of the game and can handle the swings/losing. I used to be like that but after so much winning and so much losing and so many large swings, well, it has sort of fried me permanently from poker. Not to mention the nice feeling of total worthlessness after a breakeven or losing session. Anyway, so anyone want to throw out numbers? Off the top of my head I'm beginning to think I would happily take a 50% paycut if it meant i won every session i played...i'm still thinking this over. Just curious to see what others think.

edge · #2 05-20-2006, 08:49 PM

50% sounds about right. If I knew I was going to make exactly 50% of my current winrate every hour I played, I should be able to easily play more than twice as much as I do right now.

luckychewy · #3 05-20-2006, 09:35 PM

I don't get it. How would you be able to play AND be guranteed a certain ammount of money? Wouldn't every session still require a lot of thinking and work? I know it's hyptothetical but is there any answer to this?

Slider · #4 05-20-2006, 09:47 PM

I'd cut my winrate over 50k hands in half to win every session. Then again, if some fairy or elf made me this promise that I would never lose again, I'd just step up.. but I guess my winrate would stay the same but at least I'd be beating the biggest games and get all the ladies.

DaDizz · #5 05-20-2006, 09:45 PM

For example, if i was getting 5 pt bb/100. I would be willing to take 2 ptbb/100 in a heart beat if all i had to do was play the hands and i got that. so i guess id be down with a 3/5 cut. I mean...F&%#@ ya id be down with that!!!!!!!

palman · #6 05-20-2006, 09:53 PM

50% seems reasonable to me as well. I'm not happy after downswings and I let it affect me away from the table. 50% sounds like alot, but for the price of happiness, I'll take it. I'd likely put in more hours so it'd come close to evening out overall.

RoundTower · #7 05-20-2006, 09:58 PM

I wouldn't find the game interesting at all if there were no downswings.

aggie · #8 05-20-2006, 10:54 PM

I deal with downswings very badly....I'm a tiltmonkey and my tiltiness is prone to last for months....Down streaks are emotionally devastating to me....

All that said:

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't find the game interesting at all if there were no downswings.

[/ QUOTE ]

NHFunkii · #9 05-21-2006, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't find the game interesting at all if there were no downswings.

[/ QUOTE ]

word, does that mean I have a gambling problem?

creedofhubris · #10 05-20-2006, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This has been done before in the limit forum by jay, it was a long time ago and i cant find the thread, anyway...i began thinking how much happier i would be playing poker if i knew that everytime i played i won regardless of my playing ability, cards, tilt, beats, etc... obviously this is pretty obvious and stupid since it doesn't happen, so naturally, I started thinking about how much money i would be willing to part with if it meant every session I played was in the green. I'm trying to come up with a number here or a % of my current hourly that i would be willing to cut if it meant i won everytime. Obviously this isn't a big deal for people that don't mind the ebb and flow of the game and can handle the swings/losing. I used to be like that but after so much winning and so much losing and so many large swings, well, it has sort of fried me permanently from poker. Not to mention the nice feeling of total worthlessness after a breakeven or losing session. Anyway, so anyone want to throw out numbers? Off the top of my head I'm beginning to think I would happily take a 50% paycut if it meant i won every session i played...i'm still thinking this over. Just curious to see what others think.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the answer is low enough (I'll take 1/3 my win rate to be guaranteed a win!), you should be able to find a backer.