I still don't get these low only hands - Page 2

Buzz · #11 09-26-2007, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz you seem to like to lead the flop in a lot of different situations.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.
[ QUOTE ]
It seems to make putting you on a hand very difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]I hope so. [ QUOTE ]
However you don't seem to have to hit the flop hard to take the initiative in a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.
[ QUOTE ]
Is that a true indication of your flop thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]It's true that I usually (but not always) bet the flop when I am planning to continue with a hand. And that has me betting in a lot of different situations (but not always). And part of the reason I do that is to somewhat disguise my cards at all times when I bet the flop. But there's more to it than just disguising my hand. In my second response to you, I listed some other reasons why I bet the flop. One of the most important is to try to get a clearer picture of where I stand in a hand, and that is based on the reactions of my opponents. Hopefully I can out-play them on later streets...steal sometimes, promote a one-way hand into a scooper, fold when I should, etc. Honestly I can't always out-play my opponents on later streets. Some of my opponents are simply better poker players than I am. Some of them, from my perspective are damned fine poker players!
[ QUOTE ]
Does this get you in trouble on later streets in your hands?

[/ QUOTE ]Hopefully no, but possibly yes. I've got my antennae out when I make that flop bet, trying to put my opponents who continue on a range of hands, or maybe on particular two-card combinations. It's tough because they're all a little (or a lot) different from each other, and the way they play generally depends on who else is in the hand. Lots of combinations in the opponents themselves and also in the cards they'll play under different circumstances. And poker is a game of deception. They're mostly trying to fool me and they do it in different ways.

There's a lot to this Omaha-8 game.

Buzz

Phat Mack · #12 09-27-2007, 02:56 AM

I never thought I'd see the day when Buzz became the loose cannon of the O8 forum, but here it is. I guess reading all those Wintermute posts finally paid off... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I'd like to add that seven players saw this flop. In a loose game, there is no harm in building a pot with the nut low draw. In a tight game against no 5s and/or a bunch of dinked deuces, he might take it down there. Plus, it's important to bet your low draws so that you won't be so easy to read, and you''ll get paid off better for your other stuff.

cjs · #13 09-27-2007, 06:20 PM

results

PokerStars 2/4 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Button calls, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 26.25 BB

Results
Hero has 3h Td 8s As (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: two pair, sixes and fives).
MP1 has 4d Ad Kd Qh (Low: 6, 5, 4, 2, A | High: two pair, sixes and fives).
CO has 4s 5h 4c 2c (High: full house, fives full of sixes).
Button has 9s 5c Qd 6c (High: full house, sixes full of fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.12 BB. Button wins 13.12 BB. 

I don't know if leading the flop would have made any difference in this hand. I got a nice 2 way split against 4 players but I may have left aleast one bet on the table on the river. Not sure I would have got both to call a cap.

brian64 · #14 09-28-2007, 12:00 PM

Add MP1 to your x-mas card list. On a .02/.04 table I would expect someone to call the 3-bet with A4 on the river, but are there really a lot of people like this at $2/4?

TheCount212 · #15 09-28-2007, 01:47 PM

Look, with that many players involved in the hand, you'd have to be nuts not to bet out at that flop with a draw to the nut low. It's a helluva lot less "chasy" than someone holding A4 or a diamond draw that misses. This is a spot where we're right to hope to build a huge pot and take down the bottom half. Even if we earn a quarter, by the river the pot will be so large from the number of hopeful chasers drawing to worse lows and crappy his that we still make $$$...
As usual Buzz is right. Any 6, 7, or 8 with two cards to come wins us nut low. That's 12 outs x 4 = 48% chance of hitting. No brainer.

Buzz · #16 09-28-2007, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Any 6, 7, or 8 with two cards to come wins us nut low. That's 12 outs x 4 = 48% chance of hitting.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Count - Well, you got pretty close, but...

Any four, six, seven, or eight with two cards to come wins us nut low.

The easiest way to figure this is to think in combinations rather than permutations.
(step 1) to know that after the flop, there are always 990 possible turn/river combinations. That's from C(45,2) = 45*44/2 = 990. That's because there are always 45 unseen cards after the flop (assuming no exposed cards, no collusion, and no peeking).

(step 2) Either compute the number of unfavorable combinations and subtract from 990, or simply compute the number of favorable combinations. I'm going to compute both and the check is that they add up to 990.

This is slightly complicated because there are not just two groups of cards, as there are for some probability calculations. Instead, there are three groups of cards:<ul type="square">• favorable cards,
• counterfeiting cards, and
• blanks.[/list]The favorable cards are fours, sixes, sevens, and eights. The counterfeiting cards are aces and deuces. The blanks are everything else.

Since there are three groups of cards, I'll label them F (favorable), C (counterfeiting), and B (blank).
There are 15 F cards, 6 C cards, and 24 B cards. And of course that adds up to 45, the total number of unseen cards.

Then there are six possibilities, FF, FC, FB, CC, CB, and BB. Since we are dealing with combinations rather than permutations, the order of the cards doesn't matter. (Thus after both cards have been dealt, FB and BF amount to the same thing).

The favorable combinations for Hero are FF and FB. Unfavorable combinations are FC, CC, CB and BB.

Now let's compute.
FF, 15*14/2 = 105.
FB, 15*24 = 360.

We could stop here, but just to show that it all balances, we'll continue.

FC, 15*6 = 90
CC, 6*5/2 = 15
CB, 6*24 = 144
BB, 24*23/2 = 276.

Thus there are a total of 105+360 = 465 favorable combinations, and
90+15+144+276 = 525 unfavorable combinations.

And finally, for our check, 465+525 = 990.

Thus the probability Hero will make the nut low is 465/990 = 0.47 or expressed as a per cent, 47%.

Buzz

TheCount212 · #17 10-01-2007, 12:32 PM

LOL thanks Buzz... that's close enough for me. I didn't count 4s (+4 outs) because we don't really need one to secure the nut low as the cards lie... especially given that threes (-3 outs) counterfeit us b/c they nullify the fours. So I considered the odds of seeing a 3 or a 4 as a wash. Plus, I didn't use a calculator [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

chillrob · #18 10-01-2007, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
results

PokerStars 2/4 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Button calls, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 26.25 BB

Results
Hero has 3h Td 8s As (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: two pair, sixes and fives).
MP1 has 4d Ad Kd Qh (Low: 6, 5, 4, 2, A | High: two pair, sixes and fives).
CO has 4s 5h 4c 2c (High: full house, fives full of sixes).
Button has 9s 5c Qd 6c (High: full house, sixes full of fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.12 BB. Button wins 13.12 BB. 

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really the results the hand history gave? If so, something is messed up - they seem to be playing some form of Omaha in which you can use 4 board cards.

You (and MP1) should not have two pair for high here, you can only use three of the board cards. Also, CO should have only fives full of twos, not fives full of sixes.

rando · #19 10-01-2007, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The easiest way to figure this is to think in combinations rather than permutations.
(step 1) to know that after the flop, there are always 990 possible turn/river combinations. That's from C(45,2) = 45*44/2 = 990. etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have got to be kidding me. The easiest way to think of this is that there are 16 cards to complete the NL, and everything else is bad. How is running all those calculations easier, save for a math genius or human calculator? Most people are averse to math, even some poker players, and in almost all cases thinking about smaller numbers is better... i.e. the LCD (Lowest Common Denominator).

I don't think there is a wrong play between calling, raising or anything but folding this flop, and later streets as well, although as long as it's 4 ways why not at least call everything when the NL comes in and isn't later counterfeited? Given that it's limit, when you're splitting low you are even, when you're counterfeited you are not losing a huge pot, and when you scoop you MAY be more than making up for the losses of the other permutations. If we were infinitely deep in PL or NL, a flop fold would be wise, and perhaps even on the turn, because then the danger of counterfeiting is extreme. But in Limit, four way, we have to take off our tin hats.

Buzz · #20 10-01-2007, 06:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The easiest way to think of this is that there are 16 cards to complete the NL, and everything else is bad. How is running all those calculations easier, save for a math genius or human calculator?

[/ QUOTE ]Rando - I see your point. Good point. It's just that 990 is always the number of combinations for the turn and river in Omaha or Omaha-8, and thus it's a pertinent number after every flop.

And although sometimes you want to use 16/45 after the flop, other times you want to project for two more cards, and then you use 990 as the denominator.
[ QUOTE ]
in almost all cases thinking about smaller numbers is better

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe in most cases, but not here.

It's actually much easier to divide by 990 than by 45. (990 is only 1% away from a thousand. Just move the decimal place over one place, round up a tiny bit, and think in terms of per cents).

But I see your point.

I thought it was amusing that The Count used 12, somehow multiplied by 4, and got damned close to the right answer. I got a kick out of that.

And then I just decided to solve the problem rigorously for The Count (which I did) - and he got a kick out of it too.

It was just in fun.

But more seriously, I think with two low ranks on the flop and the nut (though not counterfeit proof) low draw, once you see the turn, unless you are counterfeited, you're also going to see the river - but then you're also ducking out if you get counterfeited on the river. So you want to know your chances for the next two cards, not just the next one card.

What I meant by "easiest" is that using combinations is easier than using permutations, just to get an idea of how often you'll end up with the nut low.

I like numbers.

Buzz