100NL j10s on button flop bottom 2

boston · #1 09-07-2007, 12:57 PM

Villian = finitofl 14/8/1.75
Never gets out of line with me, i cant really see a hand villian could be doing this to me with other than a hand i am losing too....but what would your flop action be here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($14.45)
UTG+1 ($232.65)
MP1 ($40.50)
MP2 ($105.05)
MP3 ($68)
CO ($202.90)
Hero ($153.70)
SB ($119.60)
BB ($76.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $4.50, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4.

Flop: ($16) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $30, MP3 folds, Hero ????

acseif · #2 09-07-2007, 01:22 PM

well, he could be playing AK out of the SB without reraising preflop. The only other hands I can put him on is TT, JJ, and AQ. These hands are unlikely because you are holding a T and a J, and he would probably smooth call here with AQ hoping for MP3 to continue on with the hand. So imo, AK is a very likely holding for him.

KurtSF · #3 09-07-2007, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
well, he could be playing AK out of the SB without reraising preflop. The only other hands I can put him on is TT, JJ, and AQ. These hands are unlikely because you are holding a T and a J, and he would probably smooth call here with AQ hoping for MP3 to continue on with the hand. So imo, AK is a very likely holding for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his entire range is AK you only have 63% equity here and will lose the pot more than one time in three getting it in on the flop. High variance but still +EV. The problem is his range is wider than AK.

boston · #4 09-07-2007, 01:49 PM

Thats the thing here: to help out i was playin 20/12/2.8 at the table and stealing blinds about 30%

IM not sure if villian would play his AK like this, especially this board texture. Villian isnt very aggro post flop and his line IMO is pretty strong. I considered folding the flop but when im running bad i just look for reasons to call. So i called heres the turn, villian insta pushes

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($14.45)
UTG+1 ($232.65)
MP1 ($40.50)
MP2 ($105.05)
MP3 ($68)
CO ($202.90)
Hero ($153.70)
SB ($119.60)
BB ($76.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $4.50, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4.

Flop: ($16) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $30, MP3 folds, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($76) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $84.6 (All-In) hero: ????

unimproved turn card and useless for my hand, a spade could change things. Range i have on villian is JJs, 10s,AQ, possibly AK but just dont see being played this way, maybe a slowplayed AA.

Wats your line here, what if the turn was a spade?

KurtSF · #5 09-07-2007, 01:32 PM

Have no illusions that you are ahead on the flop. Villain's c/r is telling you he has AK beat, and you hand only beats what AK beats + aces.

My knee jerk reaction is to peel and see if you improve, but there is probably some serious RIO and many of your FH outs are probably tainted (KJ, JJ, TT are in his range). I don't value this hand at more than 4 outs here (including the BDFD), and I don't mind a fold at all. The exception is if you know this guy plays AA like a retart and think that's a large part of his range.

Anyone think this is weak and would rather call and see what he does on the turn?