Pederson enjoys early lead on Kyl

[faustusmedea]

Congrats to poker players who have given in the effort to oust John Kyl
http://www.actblue.com/page/pokerplayers

Support is still critical though there seems to be some early good news. Exit polling is notoriously non-despositive so don't take that much from this. Still it is a ray of light. Give, vote and help the game.

http://www.dscc.org/img/AZearlyvote.pdf

[Desdinova]

From Daily Kos:

The DSCC is buying up all available time left in Arizona, as Pederson's late-surge puts him within striking distance of a huge upset victory. But the DSCC didn't make the decision based on the polls, but on early voting patterns



According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents.


Maybe we can pull off the upset.

[HSB]

It seems like 30% is a larger percentage to be voting early...does Arizona have a much larger than normal population of retired folks?

Like Florida, but with a dry heat?

[Uglyowl]

I was going to post the same link. Which pulls more weight a Zogby poll or these early voting results?

I am just starting to learn all this stuff and would be thrilled if Pederson pulls of the upset.

I hope Kyl is squirming after getting wind of this.

[crzylgs]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like 30% is a larger percentage to be voting early...does Arizona have a much larger than normal population of retired folks?

Like Florida, but with a dry heat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So many old people around here the whole state smells like pee.

[scscoach]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems like 30% is a larger percentage to be voting early...does Arizona have a much larger than normal population of retired folks?

Like Florida, but with a dry heat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So many old people around here the whole state smells like pee.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's the Cardinals you are smelling

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe we can pull off the upset.


[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta hand it to the Republican machine, they have tricked the Democrats into flushing money down the toilet in a hopeless race. If this was poker it would be called a "slowroll" with the nuts.

[spatne]

Not a trick, but part of the Dean "50 State" strategy of trying to mount well-funded challenges in as many R states/districts as possible including some longshots. It's working in heavy red districts like WY (at large) and ID-01. Also, considering that there are some competitve Republican house seats in AZ, it makes sense to spend money up and down the ticket. I do think that Pedersen will lose, but I think the money is well-spent.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a trick, but part of the Dean "50 State" strategy

[/ QUOTE ] It makes sense, I ocassionally play higher than my bankroll dictates as well, sometimes you just gotta take a shot at it.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a trick, but part of the Dean "50 State" strategy

[/ QUOTE ] It makes sense, I ocassionally play higher than my bankroll dictates as well, sometimes you just gotta take a shot at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a smart strategy on the Dems' behalf. What they should really be looking at is the marginal gain for every X dollars spent, and I suspect that's as high in AZ right now as anywhere else. Pumping a few million into that race might increase Pederson's chances of winning from say 10% to 20%-25%, whereas doing the same in New Jersey might increase Menendez' chances of winning from 87% to 89%.

Basically AZ serves as a good backdoor out for the Democrats. Because the Tennessee race looks to be played out (and going to the GOP), they're under tremendous pressure to sweep all the races in play, particuarly VA and MO. Pederson gives them a way to control the Senate while losing a close battle in one of those states, or if the Republicans pull an upset somewhere like MT or MD.

That said, I wouldn't read too much into early balloting. Tester, the Democrat in Montana, has something like a 20% lead in early returns in a race in which he's generally been polling 3-5% ahead. It could be that these are the first signs of a turnout wave on the part of the Democrats. But it could also be that people inclined to dump incumbnents are inherently going to be more motivated and more likely to vote early.