$25: Low PP vs active opponent

[Dilznoofus]

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You all fold 44 on river, yet some of you believe betting AK on river is ok?


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I think c/c'ing the river with AK is best. There is a small chance that you will get called by 66-99. TT+ will 3bet pf and 99 could also 3bet pf. It is possible that you could be floating here with KQ as you have seen villain give up on his cbets on the turn, and then you hit a K and decided to call instead. So apart from an unlikely KQ (which should probably fold the river anyway) and 66-99 (which will generally also fold) I think that betting AK on the river only get called by better hands. However if you c/c you may well induce a bluff from a hand that would have folded if you had bet.

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CHA CHING! Hence checking here vs a good opponent is good.
Not all the time, image/history/tilt/other factors everywhere to consider - but here, the draw missed... what do you honestly think hero is goign to call us with???




Raising vs this fairly agressive player isnt wrong, neither is calling IMO. A few merits of either:

Raising: Free card, Fold out better hands(77), Protect from OC's, Find out where you are(But you lose cash when reraised).

Calling: Induced bluffs from AK etc, Can bluff yourself once he gives up to protect your hand/steal pot.


Results are in white below...
<font color="white">I was villan, i had QJ and tripple barreled, yeh it was NL$25. Flop is easy cbet, turn is perfect card to represent. On the river i figure villan to have 44 or a small overpair, both of which are close to impossible to call. IF i had AK, i'd of checked and called a bet.


Did i play it perfectly or did villan? IMO villan should fold river and his flop play is close to raise or call - Personally vs such a aggro guy like me, i like calling... Then again since i raise T9, when the 9 hits will he still call me down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]? Probably, $$$ for me. </font>

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I would have bet AK on the river and let villain decide what he wants to call me with. I'm surprised you say you would check/call. Betting and folding to a raise seems way better and really punishes villains who call with hands like 44 thinking we can only have the nuts or nothing at all.

Edit: As to the original post from villain's POV, I can certainly see the value in calling the river with 44 if you're not betting hands like JJ/QQ/AA or AK/KQ on the river, but I'm not good at math so I don't know how close it is.

[catfish_01]

Because of the twist in your OP, I'm not very clear on Hero's (your opponent) stats or reads during this, but I am going to observe that you're pretty tenacious about pointing out that a good thought process is &gt; results.

Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

I think that this applies if you're being very active or even if you're playing tight and haven't been seen going too far. The average opponent will probably decide on the flop if he will see the hand down against someone who's been very active at the table, and if they call a turn bet when the overcard comes, you're probably not folding them on the river. It's hard to give an unknown or avg opponent credit for thinking beyond that level. And if you're being tight and they're still in the hand with you, well, even more so they've probably connected because they expect you to have a hand as well.

[Dilznoofus]

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Because of the twist in your OP, I'm not very clear on Hero's (your opponent) stats or reads during this, but I am going to observe that you're pretty tenacious about pointing out that a good thought process is &gt; results.

Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

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I don't think NL Newbie is saying triple barreling with Queen high is generally good at 25NL. He's posting an interesting hand for discussion that will help us think in terms of maximizing EV. Whether his triple barrel was a good idea or not is not really relevant to the discussion.

[catfish_01]

That's what the post became, a thought about maximizing e.v., but it originally looked like a question about calling down vs. an active villian.

My obs. on the OP's line is as relevant as the opponent's line because if you know you're against a villian who can triple barrel with air, it makes more sense to play the hand passively.

[Dilznoofus]

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That's what the post became, a thought about maximizing e.v., but it originally looked like a question about calling down vs. an active villian.

My obs. on the OP's line is as relevant as the opponent's line because if you know you're against a villian who can triple barrel with air, it makes more sense to play the hand passively.

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Well, triple barreling unknowns at $25 is a bad way of maximizing EV. Your thought process is very good but probably works better in a more decent player pool at the higher limits.

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This was what I was addressing. No big deal, but you're not saying this as part of your analysis of the hand. You're saying it to call out OP for making a likely -EV play while preaching to us to think in terms of maximizing EV.

[NL Newbie]

CatFish - If your against an opponent who is aggro, calling down is certainly better than raising flop(Think i covered that in an earlier post, but not sure). However its also very difficult, thats why timed aggression is just....godly. Did that 9 on the turn help him? Oh crap what about this 2 on the river thats paired the board? Tough spots = what we always try to create of course.

In terms of 3barreling an opponent at NL$25 - As with most generalisations, its not a good thing to go by as such. However when 3barrelling, you've certainly got to pick your places carefully.

Also i believe he folds that river alot of the time, he hesistated for along time before calling. I was also confident in my read and had no other way to win, i had to bet or give up. Weakness by opponent + No showdown value = Good bet IMO.

So interms of EV, hmm its debateable.
If i played the hand against him again with AK, its obviously going to be a bet on the river.... But what good is hindsight [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

If im vs a good 2p2er, it's a check/call.

One thing i do notice in the micro forum is alot of results orientated play, we all do it. Try focus on good play as soon as you can, try ignore the results to your best of your ability. If you do not, at NL$200 when you lose $1000 in a day you'll be a total wreck and it will be massively -EV even if you do not tilt.