Bottom two, but villian says he can beat it? (NL50)

CalledDownLight · #1 09-05-2007, 01:57 AM

Villian is playing a little nittier than most and is one of the few guys I have any hands on at all at the table. Running like 15.5/3.5 or something over about 100 hands. I guess he could have JJ or QQ here too, but something gave me a feeling that he had a set. 1010 is possible imo and he wouldn't necessarily slowplay it although he might (no read on that). I doubt he's bad enough to raise worse than JJ+ and maybe the big combo draws, but I honestly don't know if he'd play 7h8h, but Ah10h is possible too I guess. Obviously 55 and 66 possible despite being very few combos. I still have a guy behind too who is pretty loose and very capable of having a draw and maybe not capable of folding it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($66)
BB ($28.50)
UTG ($58.95)
UTG+1 ($48.10)
MP1 ($12.55)
Hero ($52.05)
MP3 ($38.40)
CO ($53.95)
Button ($71.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5, Button raises to $15,
Hero folds or shoves? (calling seems bad)

SABR42 · #2 09-05-2007, 01:59 AM

ALL YOU CAN EAT BABY.

ship_it_trebek · #3 09-05-2007, 02:05 AM

Hero shoves and hopefully takes CO along for the ride with his draw.

Split Suit · #4 09-05-2007, 02:07 AM

i push it. even against tightest logical range its a push

Board: 5h 6h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.481% 43.47% 00.01% 5164 1.50 { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 56.519% 56.51% 00.01% 6713 1.50 { JJ-TT, 66-55, AhTh }

and when we include other XhTh hands with overs+FD, we are much thicker. i cant see anyother play than pushing. also, remember we opened pf, and CB this board...he cud just b playyin with ur CB.

CalledDownLight · #5 09-05-2007, 03:26 PM

Ok guys, thanks for the maths. I just had some really sick feeling that I get maybe once every 5 or 6 sessions that I'm beat and there is no explanation for it other than gut instinct. However, I once again talked myself into shoving after I requested time. He ended up showing me 55 and I wasn't surprised at all.

I keep telling myself to go with my gut, but always end up "curious" enough to stick it in bad even though I might be theoretically making the right play. I'm going to try to go with it even if it means folding second set on a dry board next time.