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#11
03-06-2007, 10:59 PM
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Re: Is the Mega Millions lottery approaching +EV?
The cash option is normally less than 1/3 of the announced prize, after taxes, so it'd be about $120 million. Not enough. Though I did buy 3 tickets.
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#12
03-06-2007, 11:21 PM
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Re: Is the Mega Millions lottery approaching +EV?
[ QUOTE ]
Not enough. [/ QUOTE ] Not ENOUGH? Please make sure to send me the money, then. I'll settle :P
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#13
03-07-2007, 12:10 AM
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Re: Is the Mega Millions lottery approaching +EV?
370 / (1 + 5%)^20 = 139.44
However, it's safe to assume you could reinvest at around 7% over 20 years. Total carry = [1+(7%-5%)]^20 = 48% of payout = 66m 66m + 140 > 175 And quite frankly, taxes should be ingnored. Do you gross up for taxes when making poker decisions? Taxes are technically a voluntary expenditures of funds...at least as much as eating is.
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#14
03-07-2007, 03:11 PM
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Re: Is the Mega Millions lottery approaching +EV?
Tell the IRS taxes are voluntary. Especially in this case, when all the taxes are withheld.
And of course I meant, not enough compared to the 176 million to 1 odds. I'd GLADLY take $120 million (hence, I bought the tickets).
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