Bay 101 Shooting Star $2000 buyin: Hand against Miami John - Page 2

Exitonly · #11 03-12-2007, 01:25 AM

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vs a range of any ace (minus AK, cause i doubt he'd just call you from the SB with that) and 55 we have 30% equity w/ A2o. Add in AKo and it's 28%, and ANY bluffs that come into play are a huge boost to our equity, and i'm certainly not ruling out a bluff, given description/my random feelings about him

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i dont get it. w/ a hand that loses to every single other hand in the range or ties it at best, it is 30%?

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Yep

Board: Ad 5d Ah Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.369% 45.25% 24.12% 5376 2865.00 { AA, 55, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o }
Hand 1: 30.631% 06.52% 24.12% 774 2865.00 { A2o }

Cornell Fiji · #12 03-12-2007, 01:36 AM

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vs a range of any ace (minus AK, cause i doubt he'd just call you from the SB with that) and 55 we have 30% equity w/ A2o. Add in AKo and it's 28%, and ANY bluffs that come into play are a huge boost to our equity, and i'm certainly not ruling out a bluff, given description/my random feelings about him

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I think your range is flawed as I think that it is highly unlikely that the villain is pulling this double check raise with A2-A4/A6-A9.

I don't think he is pulling this move often enough with air (ie TT) or diamonds either and if we do think that he is capable of pulling this double check raise then betting the turn with a hand that we are not willing to call a push with is a big mistake IMO.

ZJ,
I really don't like betting the turn with a hand that you are not willing to call a shove with. I think that it is a mistake that you did not have a plan for him shoving the turn or open shoving the river when you made your bet.

My calling range is really tight here because he has to expect a call from us most of the time. I am calling with only AJ+.

Talk to the TD in a nonconfrontational manner during the next break. From everything that I have heard Matt is a very good TD and I think that he would like to hear your criticism if it is valid (as I believe that it is)

Ian J · #13 03-12-2007, 01:57 AM

Hi Justin,

I would call with any ace.

I would certainly complain regardless of outcome. Don't be an ass, just explain the situation to Matt and hope that he sees the situation for what it was and does something about it as far as reprimanding the other floorman.

I realize that your post kinda indicates you don't really want to discuss turn play here, but it's really an interesting spot. Given that he's a new and unknown player and you guys are fairly deep, I think a check is the best play here. I think information and pot control should be 2 main concerns here considering the situation. If you don't want to discuss it in the thread that's fine, but I think it's a spot that is not discussed enough. Your hand seems very strong on the flop, but after the flop action what you really have is a bluff catching type of hand since any hand he wants to play a big pot with is going to have you in bad shape.

ZeeJustin · #14 03-12-2007, 02:38 AM

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I realize that your post kinda indicates you don't really want to discuss turn play here,

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I def want to discuss it. I posted my thoughts on it in the post. If the flop was rainbow, I think it would swing things in favor of a check, but given the texture of the board, I don't know if i really get enough extra value out of a check.

TakenItEasy · #15 03-12-2007, 03:04 AM

That 30% equity meantioned earlier is 24% tie and 6% win just to clarify, the actual equity is 24/2+6 or about 18%

I agree that Miami John has a solid image from what I remember from TV so I discount a lot of the smaller Axo. I haven't seen him play a big stack but your stack is significant enough to him that I think he would let an ace rag go.

I don't think the 2nd CR adds much strength to Johns range since your small turn bet looks so weak.

I call with AT

Board: Ad 5d Ah Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.409% 28.91% 15.50% 1908 1023.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 55.591% 40.09% 15.50% 2646 1023.00 { AA, 55, AQs-A2s, AQo-A9o }

And yes, explain the issue to Matt on the break if you win, and I would have called for him immediately when there was still time left on the clock since it would be too late if you lost. My limited experience with him in 2 previous decisions is that he is much more reasonable than most of the other floormen there.

ZeeJustin · #16 03-12-2007, 03:05 AM

The more I think about it, the more I think I should check with small aces and bet big aces. The question is, where should I draw the line?

ZeeJustin · #17 03-12-2007, 03:06 AM

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That 30% equity meantioned earlier is 24% tie and 6% win just to clarify, the actual equity is 24/2+6 or about 18%

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No, they tie 48%. 24% is the equity that stems from when they tie.

Cornell Fiji · #18 03-12-2007, 03:11 AM

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The more I think about it, the more I think I should check with small aces and bet big aces. The question is, where should I draw the line?

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I think that Miami would have assumed that you were checking small aces and betting big ones.

His check-raise says that he can beat your big aces or that you will fold them... his second check raise is so strong that I might have to amend my previously nitty range of AJ+ to an even tighter range of AQ+ in your spot. I think John's double cr range is really small here since he has to anticipate that you have a big ace and he has to anticipate that you will call with said big ace

I really hate betting on your part with a hand that you are not willing to call a shove with, I am surprised that you got caught in a hand where you had not thought out all possible future outcomes before you fired your turn bet.

ZeeJustin · #19 03-12-2007, 03:34 AM

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I really hate betting on your part with a hand that you are not willing to call a shove with, I am surprised that you got caught in a hand where you had not thought out all possible future outcomes before you fired your turn bet.

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Would your opinion change if I said I called the shove? Or how about if I said that I thought a check raise was really unlikely?

ZBTHorton · #20 03-12-2007, 03:37 AM

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I really hate betting on your part with a hand that you are not willing to call a shove with, I am surprised that you got caught in a hand where you had not thought out all possible future outcomes before you fired your turn bet.

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Would your opinion change if I said I called the shove? Or how about if I said that I thought a check raise was really unlikely?

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Whether you called the shove or not is really not the point. The point is that when you make that bet, you have to make it knowing whether or not you can call another check raise.

Obviously none of us ever anticipate being check raised twice in a row, so saying it's unlikely is pretty much a given IMO.

EDIT: All of these things are compounded by the fact that you are being rushed by the floor. The part I don't understand...still...is the posters other than Cornell and myself who think it's a call w/ A2.