Simple Question

[Kuso]

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phil, this is SUCH a loaded question, and i know you know that. i'm voting for some ulterior motive. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

anyway, a short list of some info i would like to have:

- stack sizes

- stakes (25plo8 plays differently than 400plo8)

- general texture of table (maybe villain is unknown due to the fact that he saw a stupidly juicy table and decided to jump in -- and this might influence villain's line).

- hero's image (esp. if pto tracking is possible and/or likely) -- if this is phil, then it's different than if it's someone else.



anyway, my "default lines" assuming 100 bb stacks:

- at a relatively tight-passive table, i bet out expecting to take it down and fold to a raise. Why fold? You've got a lot of money left behind and probably something like 40% equity, if not more. i probably bet most low turn cards and check (and likely fold to a bet) if the board pairs or a non-straight high card falls. Every high card gives him a straight. I'm starting to think you don't realize he flopped a wrap. Also, if it's a truly tight passive table, you should be betting board pairs too some of the time.

- at an aggressive table, i check and call or check and raise (some ratio of the two). You still should be betting out with this hand a good portion of the time at an aggressive table for a number of reasons. if villain checks behind, that could have some fun implications for turn play, most of which have me betting out and likely jamming if raised (depends on card and table texture). You're probably just going to end up putting your stack in bad most of the time doing this.

- fwiw, i don't think you frequently pick up a small pot if you bet out here in an aggressive game -- i know i'd often raise a flop bet due to the fact that as an lp caller vs an ep raiser, this flop is more likely to have hit my pf calling range than his pf raising range (as a general rule).

If you lead out after raising preflop and get raised everytime it's a high flop, that's important information and something you should like to find out ASAP.

- if i knew that you were hero, then i'd often be willing to jam with something like tp + gutshot + a backdoor draw or two (e.g., A2Qx suited to spades) depending on how you were playing.

We're talking about unkown players, so you have to think about your action as the villain along with the heros action in terms of the general player pool.

post more pls... kthx.

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lol @ me...

1) yes, i missed the wrap -- i thought it was an oesd for some reason. i'd at least call the flop raise regardless of the table texture. i'm happy to blame personal circumstances (big drama in my life) and a wee bit of alcohol for my oversight -- or maybe i just suck.

2) regarding action at an aggro table -- at a maniac-type aggro table, betting from oop is rarely good, imo. in a tighter but aggressive game, i agree with your assessment (i.e., you're often in bad shape if you get jammed on the turn after a checked flop).

3) agree with the "truly tight passive" table comment, but i try not to play in those kinds of games if possible. i'm not sure if phil ever plays at a "truly tight passive" table. ;-)

4) i agree with your pfr/high flop comment, but i'm not sure how it relates to my comment. obviously a decent lp villain raises a subset of the instances of this situation -- the interesting question is what ratio, imho.

5) villain might know hero (phil) but the opposite may not be true (e.g., due to datamining and/or forums). phil has a bit if a reputation. furthermore, those who don't know him soon learn about him.

anyway, thanks for the response. most of the responses haven't been that interesting.

FREE WINTERMUTE!!!!!

[I dunno]

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4) i agree with your pfr/high flop comment, but i'm not sure how it relates to my comment. obviously a decent lp villain raises a subset of the instances of this situation -- the interesting question is what ratio, imho.

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My only point is that we should be planning on calling any raise, so in this instance we shouldn't be worried about about getting bluff-raised off our big draw (we could even be ahead sometimes). The only real worry is that our opponent is going to fire a second barrel on the turn when it pairs. The board only pairs 9/45 times. Even if we make a bad fold 10% of the time when it pairs, then we are only making a bad fold about once every 45 turns. And its not like we're going to be folding incorrectly with 90% equity. So it would be really annoying to make a "bad" fold on the turn, but it wouldn't be a very costly one in the long run.

[rando]

Here I lead out for 1/2 to 2/3 closer to 2/3 pot bet on flop. Top set will probably push the action, everything else folds (I'm assuming decent play). You've got the most dangerous part of this relatively safe flop covered, so a raise of your flop bet will probably be fairly easy to comprehend. I think the downside of risking a raise and maybe deciding to bail on the flop raise is more than offset by the tone you're setting by dictating the action. It's probably hard to put this lead on something specific. It says I'm not afraid to bet into you, even though I don't know you, so if you wanna mess then you're going to have to bring the heat. A call of this bet is probably likewise easy to deal with on the turn. If you don't see a paired board, what can you fear aside from a LD+FD hitting (is 789x losing their mind here)? A non-club low leaves it up to your personal style I guess. I think a moderately bold flop lead boils this hand down to a thickish paste while the pot is still very manageable.