5/10 - AK UTG capped preflop

roggles · #1 10-30-2007, 09:42 PM

Ok, now that I've started posting at this forum I might as well post another hand I feel unsure about.

Read: MP2 seems to be quite solid. He is very aggressive and intimidating. In the stud games he is not afraid to raise if his board looks better or something. I've played at this table for a long time though so I feel I can call him down light, especially in the stud games. In the flop games I don't know how to read hands well, unfortunately.

Is calling flop and turn standard? I would like to represent kings or aces on the flop by c/r, but since I didn't get any opportunity to show strength preflop I don't think these players are thinking enough to believe me. Maybe I could have tried to bluff on turn, but how credible is that? I am not one to raise 77 utg.

If MP2 had bet out river and button would have folded, would a call from me be ok? getting like 1:trillion on my money and I know he bluffs a lot?

Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls, SB caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

BadBigBabar · #2 10-30-2007, 09:42 PM

you can fold the turn

jesse8888 · #3 10-30-2007, 09:47 PM

I agree with the green elephant.

roggles · #4 10-30-2007, 09:47 PM

Why? I thought A or K would win me the pot still, unless MP2 has KK or AA

jesse8888 · #5 10-30-2007, 09:50 PM

You're getting about 12 to 1 against 2 hands. You have at most 6 outs. Then come the rubs: the diamond outs are very possibly no good. The spade outs might not be good. Someone could already have a straight or a set, making you drawing completely dead. And finally, someone could have AA or KK. Basically, you need to discount your outs heavily, I'd say by as much as 1/2. To continue you probably need 4 outs, and I just can't give you credit for that many here.

Calling is of course not terrible, but IMHO is probably slightly -EV.

James. · #6 10-30-2007, 10:10 PM

from your read it sounds like MP2 is good, but certainly capable of bluffing and semibluffing. for that reason i think(since the pot is so large) a play to isolate him would be profitable. unfortunately given your position the only way to isolate him would be to bet into him on the turn, and the problem there is he's probably only raising a made hand. so really, you have a couple options. c/f the turn, or peel the turn and c/f the river. if you peel the turn, you need to be pretty sure your pair is going to win the pot frequently enough if you hit it. it's a really drawy board that taints several of your outs, but based on the pf action the flush draw is the most worrisome but a)no one necessarily has the flush draw and b)you have a bunch of overlay to continue.

Tugg · #7 10-31-2007, 11:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting about 12 to 1 against 2 hands. You have at most 6 outs. Then come the rubs: the diamond outs are very possibly no good. The spade outs might not be good. Someone could already have a straight or a set, making you drawing completely dead. And finally, someone could have AA or KK. Basically, you need to discount your outs heavily, I'd say by as much as 1/2. To continue you probably need 4 outs, and I just can't give you credit for that many here.

Calling is of course not terrible, but IMHO is probably slightly -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

As played if the mp bets and button folds on river you can call if you think he's bluffing at least 6 or 7% of the time.Based on your read I'd say thats a call.