Pairs behind you (mathematics)

[RustyBrooks]

Yes, the numbers are roughly the same - the smaller the percentage is, the closer you'll get if you add the two percentages. But the more times you do it, the worse it is, and it does not work well, in general. Look at the odds for 4 people, for example, 45% vs 56%

Really I was just trying to point out that adding probabilities gets you in big trouble.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise QQ with 3 or even 4 over behind you?

You get extra info, get rid of the overcards, or bad calls.

If the OP is talking about medium or small pairs, depends on kicker ofcourse, then 3 over behind you is a usual fold not even a call imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have QQ and there are more than 2 overs behind you then at least one of them must be counterfeited and less likely to be paired. For this discussion, you also have to factor in the chance that a player behind you has a higher wired pair. With QQ it's unlikely (esp. with an A and K in other players' doors) but becomes significant with TT and below.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]

If you have QQ and there are more than 2 overs behind you then at least one of them must be counterfeited and less likely to be paired.

[/ QUOTE ]
Individually, each paired overcard left to act has a lesser chance of being paired. However, collectively the duplicated overcards have a higher chance of being paired than a single upcard does:

1 overcard left to act = 14.6% chance of having a split pair (assuming their upcard is live)
2 duplicated overcards left to act = 19.2% at least one of them has a split pair