Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?

[HedonismBot]

Hi, I was wondering what you guys think the average chance of guessing the exact outcome of a basketball game was if given only 1 try. Would this vary much from college to pro? Also how much variability could you expect depending on who was playing? Thank you for any responses/insight.

[HedonismBot]

Anybody? Or to put it another way, what odds would you need to place a bet on an exact score? 50-1? 100-1? 30-1? Thanks

[Rainbow Warrior]

I'd offer 175-1 and take 400

[HedonismBot]

Thanks. Anyone else want to chime in what they think a fair bet would be?

[knicknut]

They'd be correlated and evenly distributed, but assuming 20 point equally distributed range for each team, 20x20 = 400 to 1, so I'd guess somewhere in the 300-500 to 1 range.

[HedonismBot]

Thanks knicknut, I'm also gonna add a poll so hopefully get a few more responses, thank guys.

[asdfasdf32]

Does this range increase due to no one ever picking blowouts like 123-74?

[lorinda]

I know the two of you are interested in this, I simply don't have the time to do the math, but this is what I'd do.

I'd go to goldsheet.com's historical data page and for each game I'd look at the under over and the point spread.
I would assume that this is the most likely outcome, so if the u/o is 200 and the home team are 6 point faves, I'd guess the score at 103-97.

I'd then see how many teams hit the exact score.

Then you should be able to work out the odds of hitting both.
I'd do this for as many seasons as I could before deciding to rip my hair out and never look at those numbers again (been there, done that, gone mad)

Oh, and if this helped, I'd be interested in knowing the result.

Lori

[asdfasdf32]

Very good idea. I guess excel is going to get a workout.

[ImBen]

6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89