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#21
11-03-2006, 12:09 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
I will expand on this later as I'm about to head out for the night, and for that matter I'm taking a train for the bulk of the day tomorrow and I can't respond then. FWIW there is a chance I make some drunk posting later night. Also FWIW I have a bit of buzz now so sorry if I offend anyone, namely Drzen. Drzen you are wrong and you didn't seem to read my post. I think most vilians are playing two pair or a set stronger at some point in the hand. Therefore I eliminate those hands in my river range, yes they are there occasionally, but a very small percent of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I don't think that's an issue. [ QUOTE ] I don't think one pair hands are minraising the river, and I don't think air is minraising the river therefore I think villians most likely hand is a flush. [/ QUOTE ] Okay. Well, I did read your post and you didn't give any reason those hands wouldn't minraise the river and you don't again here. So I guess I wasn't wrong. You didn't "hand read". You excluded hands that didn't fit your thesis. That's different. FWIW, I think Ax does sometimes raise here precisely because *your* action looks like a TP that was scared by the turn ace and they think you might fold if you have something a bit better. Actually, it's a damned good move on their part because that would be a correct read, and we just folded the best hand. And I'm not offended. Why would I be? You discounted hands just because you don't think they ever raise. I think they sometimes do. 
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#22
11-03-2006, 12:10 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
Drzen,
I tried to stay out of this but you have said so much wrong I feel it is necessary to step in and say something. [ QUOTE ] Dude, you need to get over this sort of thinking. You have to put it out there when you think something is wrong, not just join the line of people applauding. BigT can be wrong. Anyone can. Anyway, I agree with BigT that this was a nice post. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously BigT is wrong sometimes but considering he is beating 5/10NL and 10/20NL for a lot of money I value his opinion highly because his results dictate that he is a very good player who knows what he is doing. [ QUOTE ] And, seriously, saying that you can narrow the guy's range here because you would if he fired at an ace-high flop is seriously lame. Not even realising that this is a very different situation and nothing like that clearcut is, well, not the mark of someone whose criticism I'm taking seriously. [/ QUOTE ] You can narrow his range here on the river because he is min re raising which is almost always a a value bet because it has little fe. Sure other hands are possible but it seems unlikely because he has not shown any interest to get a lot of money in the pot until the river when the flush card hit. Sure he could have two pair/set/straight/bluff but it is pretty unlikely because with two pair/straight/set he is likely not calling the flop and then checking the turn against two other opponents and on a drawy board. Sure it is possible but it is not likely. Given how this hand played out it seems quite clear that villain will have a flush a lot of the time. [ QUOTE ] I haven't suggested repeatedly leading anything. But if I bet top pair on a twoflush board, and two call, count on me firing again on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously this is situation dependent but consistently betting two streets with tpnk is a huge leak. You bloat the pot with a marginal hand when frequently if you are getting called it is by a better hand.
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#23
11-03-2006, 12:17 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
Drzen, I tried to stay out of this but you have said so much wrong I feel it is necessary to step in and say something. [ QUOTE ] Dude, you need to get over this sort of thinking. You have to put it out there when you think something is wrong, not just join the line of people applauding. BigT can be wrong. Anyone can. Anyway, I agree with BigT that this was a nice post. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously BigT is wrong sometimes but considering he is beating 5/10NL and 10/20NL for a lot of money I value his opinion highly because his results dictate that he is a very good player who knows what he is doing. [/ QUOTE ] He didn't comment on the substance, man. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And, seriously, saying that you can narrow the guy's range here because you would if he fired at an ace-high flop is seriously lame. Not even realising that this is a very different situation and nothing like that clearcut is, well, not the mark of someone whose criticism I'm taking seriously. [/ QUOTE ] You can narrow his range here on the river because he is min re raising which is almost always a a value bet because it has little fe. [/ QUOTE ] But we are folding! You don't see the contradiction? [ QUOTE ] Sure other hands are possible [/ QUOTE ] Let's just stop there. That's the point. Pudge says other hands are not possible bar sets and two pair hands. He says that other hands cannot raise here. I say they can. You agree. We're done with it. And btw, I don't think continuing with TP on the turn when I've bet the flop is a leak. I think letting an FD have a free card is. YMMV.
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#24
11-03-2006, 12:17 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
This seems to be the underlying assumption of the eagles' guy's posts: that a flush is guaranteed to rake in big money whenever you hit with it. But even in this hand, the guy is not stacking us with a made flush, if he has it [/ QUOTE ] 1. We don't need to stack him to get value if he has a flush he has made enough money from us that his flop call is fine. 2. We are better than most people the average donk will donate more money if we are drawing to a flush.
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#25
11-03-2006, 12:22 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
Drzen,
Nice selective quoting You quote sure other hands are possible My actual quote Sure other hands are possible but it seems unlikely because he has not shown any interest to get a lot of money in the pot until the river when the flush card hit. Pudge never said he has a flush 100% of the time but he as a flush a lot here. Second you seem to think there is a contradiction to folding to a river bet that I said is almost always a value bet. That makes sense, a value bet is almost always a better hand therefore we should fold. third If you think calling with a flush draw getting good odds is a mistake. But stacking off with tpnk in a 3 way pot isn't a leak you have to seriously evaluate your game.
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#26
11-03-2006, 12:25 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I always thought you were a good player, but this has shown me you have the thought process to be pretty [censored] successful. [/ QUOTE ] Ya I guess BigT thought the post was terrible. The fact that he didn't say anything indicates that he agrees with what was said.
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#27
11-03-2006, 12:27 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This seems to be the underlying assumption of the eagles' guy's posts: that a flush is guaranteed to rake in big money whenever you hit with it. But even in this hand, the guy is not stacking us with a made flush, if he has it [/ QUOTE ] 1. We don't need to stack him to get value if he has a flush he has made enough money from us that his flop call is fine. [/ QUOTE ] You're working from results backwards. If the turn had not been an ace and you'd bet again, he's not making his money, he is folding. He got lucky. You said that no one should fold a flush draw on this flop. But how often can you continue after another bet on the turn? I generally assume if I have an FD that the flop bettor will fire again at most turns. How many times will that mean missing with your flush draw, for how much money, and how much will you make when you do hit? You made it this time, but how many times for how much will you make it? [ QUOTE ] 2. We are better than most people the average donk will donate more money if we are drawing to a flush. [/ QUOTE ] I find that most "donks" don't give value for a flush. You need them to have made a decent hand too. I agree that the way this hand has turned out, the flushholder would make money from a bad player. But he would consider himself lucky, a/ that an ace came on the turn, which let him have a free shot at his flush and b/ that the hapless donk hit his kicker on the river. I don't count on that happening every time I chase a flush!
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#28
11-03-2006, 12:29 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[censored] I said I wouldn't post in this thread again, but Drzen you are [censored] retarded.
Please answer this question why would a one pair hand ever minraise this river? If you want to answer with well he's a donk then ignore the rest of my post, because for this exercise I'm assuming my opponents are not complete tool box donkeys like yourself
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#29
11-03-2006, 12:35 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
[ QUOTE ]
Drzen, Nice selective quoting You quote sure other hands are possible My actual quote Sure other hands are possible but it seems unlikely because he has not shown any interest to get a lot of money in the pot until the river when the flush card hit. Pudge never said he has a flush 100% of the time but he as a flush a lot here. [/ QUOTE ] He said villain is *never* raising with a worse hand! [ QUOTE ] Second you seem to think there is a contradiction to folding to a river bet that I said is almost always a value bet. [/ QUOTE ] No, I said there is a contradiction to saying that the bet has no fold equity when we folded! [ QUOTE ] That makes sense, a value bet is almost always a better hand therefore we should fold. [/ QUOTE ] A value bet is almost always what the other person *thinks* is a better hand. [ QUOTE ] third If you think calling with a flush draw getting good odds is a mistake. But stacking off with tpnk in a 3 way pot isn't a leak you have to seriously evaluate your game. [/ QUOTE ] You said no one ever folds a flush draw on this flop. You did not say no one ever folds a flush draw to this action. Even so, I don't think the odds are "good". If a third heart falls on the turn, you're not likely to get another cent out of it (so your call is -EV). If it doesn't, another bet makes you fold (so your call is -EV). And dude, way to miss the point! Betting again on the turn is not the same as putting your whole stack in.
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#30
11-03-2006, 12:40 AM
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Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
Drzen
Stop being such a [censored] nit especially when you are wrong I said his raise has LITTLE FE if you are going to dissect my posts word by word and debate every little thing at least get it right. Okay I was wrong people will fold a flush draw on this flop to a lot of action. LOL you got me way to pwn me based on my grammar. Maybe instead of worrying about nitty mistakes like this you should learn how to play poker.
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