10NL - T3s in BB flops combo draw

[akak]

Villain is 44/4.4/0.91. Just looking for a line check here. Everyone ok with this?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($11.20)
Button ($3.95)
SB ($5.60)
Hero ($10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.40) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.4</font>, Hero calls $0.40, UTG folds, Button folds.

Turn: ($1.20) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.2</font>, Hero calls $1.20.

River: ($3.60) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $5.60

[Ulkis]

I am truly a nit but I fold flop: 2nd pair, very bad kicker. For a non-nit, Turn is the time to muck it, as this hand is getting very expensive with a poor hand.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
I am truly a nit but I fold flop: 2nd pair, very bad kicker. For a non-nit, Turn is the time to muck it, as this hand is getting very expensive with a poor hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has a flush draw, folding the flop would be perhaps a bit too tight.

You may be able to fold the turn depending on the player, given that your pair/trips outs may be no good and it may be difficult to get paid when you hit. If he's going to take his flopped straight with him through hell and back than call and shove when you hit.

Surf

[Ulkis]

I am sorry I take it all back - I truly did not see the flush draw. This is embarrassing...

But the good thing is, I might've found my leak!

[Niediam]

I'm raising the flop.

[akak]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even against this guy? Why?

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even against this guy? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) We often have the best hand (in terms of equity).

2) Villian will often fold a hand that he should continue with.

3) I don't like passive lines in general if they will often have us folding good hands on the turn because a scare card comes or because we don't want to pay to continue.

[adsman]

This hand is a good example of what I refer to as, "The Big Blind Bleed." That is, you get a free look at the flop and score enough of a hand to keep going with, usually a draw with another little piece such as this one. You call all the way, miss your draw and fold. You ended up putting in almost 20% of your stack on this crummy hand that you'd never have played if you weren't in the BB.

I raise the flop. You have position, you can take off the free card if you want on the Turn, you may just take it down right there, and if he comes back at you then you know that you can let it go.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is a good example of what I refer to as, "The Big Blind Bleed." That is, you get a free look at the flop and score enough of a hand to keep going with, usually a draw with another little piece such as this one. You call all the way, miss your draw and fold. You ended up putting in almost 20% of your stack on this crummy hand that you'd never have played if you weren't in the BB.

I raise the flop. You have position, you can take off the free card if you want on the Turn, you may just take it down right there, and if he comes back at you then you know that you can let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the flop doesn't save you money - if you pot it, you are spending the same amount that hero did to see 2 cards, except when villain has a legitimate hand and reraises(which is a relatively likely given that this passive player potted it into a 4way field) you are folding without even seeing one card.

Investing a bunch of money with a decent equity hand and then folding before you can realize any of it is a costly, ineffecient play, since nearly all of those "big" hands that would reraise us we actually have live outs against.

For the raisers: what hands are you expecting this player to be potting 4way, then folding to our raise? Also, take a good look at the board and count out all the "real" hands he could have (2pair+) that may want to reraise us, and count out the "real" hands that will not fold (TP, combo draws).

Hero played it fine, presuming that he had good implied odds on the river when he hits. If he did not have sufficient implied odds then he should fold the turn.

Surf

[Niediam]

Folding to a push if we raise would be rather bad.

Playing around with 'Stove a bit I estimate our equity against just 2pair+ hands to be 36.6%

If we add pair + OESD we are at 45.4%

Add in realistic top pair hands + QT and we are at 46.4%

Hands like Q9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] were included but I didnt consider any random flush draws like A2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or any non-pair straight draws such as A9 or KQ.

OP: over how many hands are your stats on villian from?