reraised pot oop -- nl cash

[whaahhahahah]

hypothetical situation -- type of hand happens fairly often.

tenth hand in. i've reraised once oop. he called, i cbet the flop and he folded.

100bb effective
3/6 nl
i have AQ -- no spades. he raises to 18, and i reraise to 60. he calls.

pot (120)
K72 with two spades. i lead for 80. he raises to 200.

i should push this x% of the time. x = ?

[brandysbich]

I'd be interested in hearing other opinions on this. I push this 0% of the time cos i'm a nit that way and especially after only 10 hands.

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
hypothetical situation -- type of hand happens fairly often.

tenth hand in. i've reraised once oop. he called, i cbet the flop and he folded.

100bb effective
3/6 nl
i have AQ -- no spades. he raises to 18, and i reraise to 60. he calls.

pot (120)
K72 with two spades. i lead for 80. he raises to 200.

i should push this x% of the time. x = ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let x be the percentage of time he needs to fold to show a profit on the push . The probability you win when called may be as low as 12 %(possibly lower) and as high as 24% . I'll use the average of these two numbers as an estimate and assume that you'll win 18% of the time when called . Let's round it up to 20% .

EV(push) = 400*x + (1-x)*[740*0.2 - 460*0.8]

We wish for this equation to be greater than 0 .

After simplifying we get 400x -220*(1-x) >=0
400x + 220x >=220
x>= 35.48%

So if he folds more than 35.48% , then a shove will show a profit .

Remark: If you shove , your opponent will be getting pot odds of 860:340 or ~ 2.52:1 on the call . So with that in mind , your semi bluff may not always work in this case but it only has to be successful a little over a third of the time .

[mb6tour]

poker math pwned me on that (yeah I don't know math at all)
where that 400 come from?

[whaahhahahah]

when he folds, we get 100% of the $400 in the pot -- so 400x.

[mb6tour]

[ QUOTE ]
when he folds, we get 100% of the $400 in the pot -- so 400x.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Tupacia]

Because you don't know anything about villain and even some bluffs in his range are ahead of you, x should be close to zero.

Once you have an idea of the tendencies of the villain, then it is much easier to calculate an ideal x. But making these plays before you know anything about the villain is a big leak IMO.

So to answer your particular hypothetical, I think X has to be zero. But if you give different information (% of time you c-bet after 3-betting preflop, % he usually raises, his preflop tendencies) then it's a whole different ballgame. Because the lack of any read on the opponent, I think it's impossible to have a really informative discussion on this.

[Unknown Soldier]

100 [censored] him