The Official NBA Regular Season 07-08 Thread

[kidcolin]

Gay won't be that good this season I don't think.

[IrishHand]

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Mike Miller is above average. In fact, he's quite good.

Conley is an unknown and Gay has the chance to be very good.

This lineup features 4 guys that I'd want on almost any team, so they may surprise people.

That said, I dont see them in the playoffs either.

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Miller - "good" only if you're comparing him to other options in Memphis. By NBA standards, as a starting SG, he's average or below-average. To say he's above average, he needs to be better than at least 15 other starting SGs. My top 16:
Kobe Bryant
Dwayne Wade
Tracy McGrady
Vince Carter
Manu Ginobili
Allen Iverson
Michael Redd
Joe Johnson
Ray Allen
Rip Hamilton
Kevin Martin
Leandro Barbosa
Ben Gordon
Ricky Davis
Brandon Roy
Jason Richardson

Every one of those guys is a better starting SG than Miller - and I'd argue that guys like Stephen Jackson/Monta Ellis, and Larry Hughes are better too - putting Miller in "below-average" range. Mike Miller is a good 3rd option on offense and he's a poor defensive player.

Conley looked awful in summer league and is likely at least a year away. His ceiling appears to be TJ Ford, which isn't anything to get excited about. The kid has no shot outside 10 feet. None.

Gay could be good. He could have been good enough to be the top overall pick, but he lacked the drive. He could have been good enough to be rookie of the year, but he lacked the drive. Maybe he'll develop into an above-average NBA SF, but I doubt he'll be at that level this coming year.

You: This lineup features 4 guys that I'd want on almost any team, so they may surprise people.

Corrected: This lineup features 4 starters that I'd want on almost any team's bench and only one guy who'd start for most other NBA teams - Gasol - so they're doomed to the lottery.

[Assani Fisher]

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This is incorrect. If I asked you who will win the NBA title and you say the Spurs, does that mean that you think theres a greater than 50% chance that the Spurs win?

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No. I think most rational people would conclude that I think the Spurs have a greater chance of winning than any of the other 29 teams. The only situation where you could imply a 50%+ chance of winning from that statement would be before the Finals where there were only two participating teams.

The Durant o/u of 16.5 is way too low. Your o/u of 26.5 is way too high.

You're forecasting that Durant's average expected PPG production for his rookie year will be the 7th highest in NBA history. On average. 6th in history is Jordan's 28.2 PPG. And Jordan was 21 at the time. Durant will be 19. The highest NBA rookie scoring averages in history by a 19-year old are Melo (21.0) and LeBron (20.9). I don't think that Durant is as good as either of them were at a similar stage (they were each more physically advanced), but their situations are comparable - horrible teams built around their star rook. The only thing I'd throw in there is that Seattle is probably even more horrible than either Cleveland or Denver at the time, which probably isn't a good thing for Durant or his production. We'll see though. I think a fairer o/u for Durant would be around 20.

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Scoring wise I think that Durant is better than MJ, Melo, and Lebron at that age. I pretty much think hes the best scorer at that age EVER.

[Assani Fisher]

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Conley looked awful in summer league and is likely at least a year away. His ceiling appears to be TJ Ford, which isn't anything to get excited about. The kid has no shot outside 10 feet. None.


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This is simply ridiculous. The kid is 19 years old....you think you could give him some time to develop before you write him off? He was a top 5 pick in one of the best and deepest drafts of all time. He has the potential to be very very good.

[IrishHand]

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Conley looked awful in summer league and is likely at least a year away. His ceiling appears to be TJ Ford, which isn't anything to get excited about. The kid has no shot outside 10 feet. None.


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This is simply ridiculous. The kid is 19 years old....you think you could give him some time to develop before you write him off? He was a top 5 pick in one of the best and deepest drafts of all time. He has the potential to be very very good.

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I think this past draft will play out as a below-average draft. The year before was supposed to be poor and it may yield multiple All-Star calibre players (Bargs, Aldridge, Tyrus, Roy). Yards and yards of potential...which is more than this year's draft can boast outside of Durant.

This draft has a "can't miss" big guy with an injury history (back) who's out for the year (knee). Durant I agree is likely to be very good, though to compare him to Jordan is more than a little silly at this point. A better Melo is his ceiling imo. The rest of the draft? Not impressive at all imo. We'll see though...

[tdarko]

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Just a note to everyone, but mainly tdarko and tuq. (I live in Dallas btw) The only phx/dal game in Dallas this season is on December 19th.

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While I believe darko's roaming is true, i think that Dallas is/was a home base. He'd obviously have to confirm this

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I will be in Dallas in December gents!

We need to plan something for the game.

[FlyWf]

"I think this past draft will play out as a below-average draft. "

I didn't think you could outwrong your previous belief that Larry Hughes isn't worse than Mike Miller, but come on. Oden and Durant alone make it above average. The rest of the draft is icing, but mostly good icing. Guys like Horford and Wright should be solid NBA starters, Conley is apparently merely going to be as good as TJ Ford, Green and Brewer are roughly Roy-caliber players.

[IrishHand]

Larry Hughes is making a lot more money than Mike Miller - so evidently at least a couple NBA agents and a couple NBA GMs agree with me there. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Green seems to be to be more like a midlevel, solid SF. A Boris Diaw, only with fewer assists, a slimmer belly and no accent. Brewer's offensive liabilities make it quite possible he evolves into a defensive specialist role, which isn't that big a deal. He's a poor rebounder and shooter. I can't imagine an NBA GM wanting either of those guys over Roy, who demonstrated he's a potential All-Star as a rookie. I don't see a big difference between Marvin Williams (flop-in-progress) and Wright. Athleticism without drive and passion tends to result in Darius Miles or worse.

And saying Conley may develop into TJ Ford isn't a bad thing - TJ Ford's a fringe All-Star in a weak year out East. He's just not a franchise guy, nor can I imagine Conley ever being one with his limitations. I've been wrong before, and I've no doubt I'll be wrong again though.

[rakes.a.beach]

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Durant PPG: O/U 16.5

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Way way over. I'd say 26.5.

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I'll take the under for whatever you want to bet

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How many PPG do you think he'll average?

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Less than 26.5 please bet me.

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LOL....

If my prediction is that he gets 26.5 that means that I think theres a 50% chance he gets more that that and a 50% chance that he gets less than that. Obviously you think that he will get much less than that. Why on earth would I make that bet? Moreover, I'm sure I can get a much better line at a sportsbook.


Just because someone predicts something doesn't mean that they'll bet on it happening.

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Assani,
I think most people make predictions because they feel they are likely to happen. That being said. I would still like to bet with you how about 24.5 as a line?

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This is incorrect. If I asked you who will win the NBA title and you say the Spurs, does that mean that you think theres a greater than 50% chance that the Spurs win?

Or in this case, if I predict that a guy will score around 26.5 PPG that means that I think theres an equal chance that he scores a little more or a little less than that.

I'll ask you again: What is your prediction for number of points he scores on the year?

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The spurs would have a 1/30 chance of winning the championship if they were the same as the other 29 times. Durant is either going to avg above 26.5 or below 26.5. Your analogy is pretty bad.

[ClarkNasty]

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"I think this past draft will play out as a below-average draft. "

I didn't think you could outwrong your previous belief that Larry Hughes isn't worse than Mike Miller, but come on. Oden and Durant alone make it above average. The rest of the draft is icing, but mostly good icing. Guys like Horford and Wright should be solid NBA starters, Conley is apparently merely going to be as good as TJ Ford, Green and Brewer are roughly Roy-caliber players.

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Your last sentence is totally absurd.

If one excludes Durant and Oden, I agree that this draft will have less impact than last year's. Obviously you can't do that, but I think it does make the point that this year's draft may be overrated and last year's underrated. Of course, it takes 4 years to really judge anyways, so who knows.