Stars $1k bluff, kind of spewy but against a nit, thoughts?

woohoo88 · #1 10-10-2007, 05:17 AM

I don't consider myself qualified enough to offer advice here, so I just have a question.

Is this a situation that the zeebo theorem applies to?

TheNewf · #2 10-10-2007, 06:15 AM

This is all about levels. Against a very sophisticated player who thinks you're a nit this a sweet move because you can't possibly be bluffing once you gave up on the turn. Unfortunately for you I can count on my fingers the number of players I'd be willing to try this against, and basically none of them are donkament players. A tournament player is unlikely to think any higher than well he didn't bet the turn so he can't have a big pair therefore my 99 is good. Overbet is better but I still don't really like it.

Todd Terry · #3 10-10-2007, 09:40 AM

I think an overbet is getting called by a wider range of hands than the bet OP made. Combined with a turn check/check, an overbet looks like a bluff. Why would you overbet for value into someone who has shown no strength?
Yeah, I know you can think about the levels forever, but in general overbets get less respect than bets that look like value bets, and in this specific situation I would not expect an overbet value bet into someone who checked behind on the turn.

LuckyLloyd · #4 10-10-2007, 10:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think an overbet is getting called by a wider range of hands than the bet OP made. Combined with a turn check/check, an overbet looks like a bluff. Why would you overbet for value into someone who has shown no strength?
Yeah, I know you can think about the levels forever, but in general overbets get less respect than bets that look like value bets, and in this specific situation I would not expect an overbet value bet into someone who checked behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't personally think this is true at all. And I think that on the most basic level, calling with 99 becomes a lot easier when you realise that you only need to be good approx 30% of the time to profit on the call.

mastr · #5 10-10-2007, 10:37 AM

i think in no way is jovial gent a nit and that this doesn't work enough against him