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Simple Kelly Problem
Hi All,
Probably a ridiculously easy math question, but please help me out by calculating my average advantage in these blackjack scenarios: a)I place 100 bets, betting the same amount each time. For half of the bets, I have a 1.5% advantage, and for half of them, I am at a .5% disadvantage. b)Again I play 100 hands, but this time I wager 5x when I have a 1.5% advantage, and just x when I'm at a .5% disadvantage. According to my gorilla math, my EV in the first scenario is 1.05 x my total action, for an average advantage of .5% In the 2nd scenario, it's 1.07 x total action, for an average advantage of .7%. Is this right, in terms of me determining my bet sizes according to some Kelly Criteria (1/2, full, etc.)? Does it matter in terms of the swings that the hands enjoy different degrees of advantage/disadvantage? In other words, would the bankroll considerations be any different from scenario 2, if I played all hands at a .7% advantage? Thanks in advance. |
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