Can i get some insight 10nl

[Perk76]

One thing to consider and it has been stated in other threads. The reality of odds needed to play a hand for set odds is around 11-1 due to the chances of set over set.

[0524432]

good point

[Keitan]

You are definitely getting the odds to call the extra $.35 even if just to set mine.. Remember Button called preflop too, so you have to include the % of time you will win from both villains or even just Button.. If you were up against just UTG then it's a fold.

0522432, maybe i missed it (i just skimmed your posts), but it seems your only concerned about UTG regarding the preflop call.

[Caelallaiach]

Okay, I just did some quick calculations under the assumptions:-

1) We hold a small pocket pair like 55.
2) Our opponent holds AA.
3) We check/fold if we miss.
4) We get all our chips in if we flop a set and get called everytime by the AA.

Then we need to win 10.6 times what we called preflop off our opponent, so close to your number of 11 to 1. I included set over set on the flop and the 8% suckout rate for the AA hitting an A on the turn or river.

Of course, our opponent will have AK and miss some of the time or QQ and the flop will come AK5 and in those cases we will not be able to stack our opponents. This, I assume is the basis of the 5-10 rule, if we are putting in 5% of what we might win in total if we can stack someone then it is a reasonable call. This assumes we can stack the raiser about 50% of the time, a reasonable assumption at micro stakes.

[Caelallaiach]

[ QUOTE ]
You are definitely getting the odds to call the extra $.35 even if just to set mine.. Remember Button called preflop too, so you have to include the % of time you will win from both villains or even just Button.. If you were up against just UTG then it's a fold.

0522432, maybe i missed it (i just skimmed your posts), but it seems your only concerned about UTG regarding the preflop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without Button's call, there would be $1.25 in the pot, $0.35 to call, so the pot lays about 3.5 to 1, and another $4.81 left in UTG's stack.

Max we can win: $4.81 + $1.25 = $6.06
Min we win = $1.25

We would be calling $0.35 to potentially win $6.06, so about 6% of what we win if we stack Villain. Personally, I would still call this, I think we can stack Villain more often than normal given the min-re-raise tell.

We need to win about (11x$0.35=$3.85) on average using the 11 to 1 quoted above. There is $1.25 already in the pot so we need to get $2.60 on average from Villain.

That means stacking him about 54% of the time we hit our set ($2.60/$4.81x100%), seems a reasonable assumption? So call the min-raise with or without Button calling, although having the Button in as well is obviously preferable, since it adds to the preflop pot and also is an extra stack to win money off.

Seriously, I really, really, love it when weak players play their big Pocket Pairs this badly preflop, but they do need to have enough for us to win in their stack.

[0524432]

"Seriously, I really, really, love it when weak players play their big Pocket Pairs this badly preflop, but they do need to have enough for us to win in their stack. "

lol, likewise. However I disagree about even calling the .35 to stack a shortie

[Keitan]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, likewise. However I disagree about even calling the .35 to stack a shortie

[/ QUOTE ]

Please could you confirm that you are aware Button is also in this hand and called the extra .35 before Hero.

[Caelallaiach]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, likewise. However I disagree about even calling the .35 to stack a shortie

[/ QUOTE ]

How come? He's not that short (as an aside, BB is $0.05, not $0.10, so not 10NL as most of us know it). Do you agree with my figure of needing to stack him 54% of the time when we hit our set? I really reckon we can do that, I am convinced this is a weak player with a monster, because of the UTG min-reraise and I don't see him getting away from it unless it is AK that doesn't hit or KK, QQ facing overcards, but on balance I think we stack him often enough to call here even without Button calling the extra $0.70.

[Keitan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol, likewise. However I disagree about even calling the .35 to stack a shortie

[/ QUOTE ]

How come? He's not that short (as an aside, BB is $0.05, not $0.10, so not 10NL as most of us know it). Do you agree with my figure of needing to stack him 54% of the time when we hit our set? I really reckon we can do that, I am convinced this is a weak player with a monster, because of the UTG min-reraise and I don't see him getting away from it unless it is AK that doesn't hit or KK, QQ facing overcards, but on balance I think we stack him often enough to call here even without Button calling the extra $0.70.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against UTG alone I'm folding - risk/reward just isn't there. Even if you are guaranteed to stack him every time you hit your set it's not worth it. General rule is effective stack should be 10x the what you put in PF. This is assuming you are playing just for set value. If you estimate you have some steal equity it could obviously be less than 10x.

[Caelallaiach]

If UTG raised it up to $0.75 in his first action and it folded round to Hero in the BB, I 100% agree with what you say, we would have to call $0.75 to win $4.81 and that would not be profitable.

But that isn't the situation here, with Hero raising and UTG min-reraising, we have to call $0.35 to win $6.06. Like I said before, the $0.40 Hero raised to previously now belongs to the pot, we can't withdraw that money. We now have to make a decision based on the pot odds we are being laid at this current time.

So, if you agree with the numbers I worked out above which I think are correct, the debate becomes, can we stack UTG 54% of the time when we hit our set. I would argue yes because:-

1) I think the min-reraise is a pretty reliable tell that he has a strong hand from my experience playing micro no limit.
2) Without wanting to be too rude, HE IS A DONKEY!!! What hand would you limp UTG with and then min reraise, I can't think of one hand with which a good player would do that.
3) I might as well now mention that Button is also a donkey too. What hand do you limp with after two callers and then call again after a raise and a min-reraise? Answer: Nothing, if you a good player, he probably has suited connectors, a small pocket pair and does not have anywhere near the implied odds he needs, or QJo, or AA (hopefully), or A5s, who knows? Either way, I feel that a "HEEEEE-HAWWWW!!!" is appropriate here.

For entertainment value, given that 2) is true, let me recall a couple of the kind of extra money making possiblities that I see at micro stakes:-
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], flop J52, we pot it, does UTG fold? He obviously should, but does he, does he?
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Even better is when UTG has KK, flop comes Q72, in an attempt to be tricky UTG bets $0.05, yes that's right, you get laid 25 to 1 odds and can call to hit your 2 outer, I have stacked people this way before, and got abused for being lucky in the chat box, LOL!

So, my point is, we need to call this $0.35, with or without the Button, I really do think we can stack UTG more than 54% of the time.

IMO, the real question in this hand is should Hero raise to $0.40 in the first place, I am not sure. This is actually one of the few times I have experimented with min raising in the past; when I have a small Pocket Pair in the blinds, simply because everyone calls and it makes the pot twice as big. Obviously attentive players would realise what it is, but this is micro stakes and no one pays attention much.