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Old 11-05-2007, 07:37 PM
student_of_game student_of_game is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
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Default NLHE Implied odds for playing pocket pairs for set value

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone can point me to a calculation for the implied odds to play a pocket pair (pre-flop) for set value. I'm interested in situations where you are either calling a raise pre-flop or perhaps you raise and get 3-bet and are deciding whether to call (in cases where effective stacks are not deep).

I know that odds of a pocket pair flopping a set are about 7.5:1. However, there are a few important factors when determining if you have implied odds to call pre-flop when playing for set value:

1) You may hit a set and still lose (e.g., set over set on the flop or your opponent catches up by the turn or river, or your opponent plays some speculative hand that connects with the board).

2) You may hit a set and not get paid off (e.g., your opponent has missed overs, your opponent can fold an overpair, or your opponent raises or 3-bets speculative hands pre-flop and misses the flop).

I figured this is the kind of thing someone must have worked out before, but I couldn't find info. Is there some "accepted" implied odds value before calling can even be considered correct? (e.g., 10:1 or something along those lines?) I know the correct value depends on your opponent's tendencies, so a lower bound is what I'm after.
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