600NL - I get myself into trouble with 2nd pair + nfd vs a donkey.

[MrHoobris]

I like checking the turn. There are several good reasons to do so:

1. We are not missing out on value because we can VB the river if he checks again which he will often call lighter (I would not be betting river UI here).
2. Checking behind could induce a bluff on the river.
3. Checking behind on the turn will keep him in the pot with a low club he would otherwise fold which then may pay off a river bet.
4. We do not fear free cards.
5. We avoid getting check/raised.

The main reasons for betting are:

1. We can then shove the river if we hit a club. But in this situation I doubt we are getting paid off much because he would have to peel exactly JcJx/TcTx/QcJx/QxJc, and then still pay off a shove. And some times he will lead out the river and call a raise all-in anyway.
2. Induce a bluff ch/r, we can be happy to snap call. Based on you posting this, this doesn't seem to be the case.

So, IMO checking clearly dominates.

As played, I call. You have about 20% equity vs. the has you crushed range, and about 90% equity if he's bluffing.

You need 337/(790+337)=30% equity to call given the pot odds, so he must be bluffing at least X*90%=10%, X=11% of the time. Given his stats and your line, I'd call his shove as he'll probably be bluffing or doing something stupid at least this much.