A-Rod and 2008

[thing85]

Bodog currently has the prop bet:

What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?

Here are the odds and their associated percentages:

Boston Red Sox 11/2 (15.38%)
Chicago Cubs 4/1 (20%)
Detroit Tigers 5/1 (16.67%)
Los Angeles Angels 3/1 (25%)
Los Angeles Dodgers 7/2 (22.22%)
New York Mets 8/1 (11.11%)
New York Yankees 5/1 (16.67%)
Philadelphia Phillies 9/1 (10%)
San Francisco Giants 10/1 (9.09%)
Field (Any Other Team) 5/2 (28.6%)

First, I will give my standard warning that I am somewhat of a square when it comes to analyzing these things, but I want to generate a discussion.

Right off the bat, we should be able to take a few of these off the board because they are either extremely unlikely or bad bets. I'll mention the bad bets and the square logic that will likely induce poor odds. We'll also assume that the only 2 possible positions for ARod are 3B and SS.

- Yankees claim they will not renegotiate with him.
- Mets have Wright and Reyes, so 11.11% chance is way too high.
- I think LAA is a strong possibility, but I don't like getting only 3:1. This line obviously compensates for the fact that everyone is saying "OMG ARod will play for LAA because they have the payroll and need for a 3B."
- LAD is also a possibility - another big market team with a need for a 3B and Torre as the likely manager. 22% chance is too high.
- "OMG Cubs have Piniella and maybe ARod will want to reunite with him." The Cubs ownership situation is still up in the air and I don't think there's even close to a 20% chance ARod signs with them.

I'm really unsure about Boston and Detroit. Boston will potentially have a need for a 3B considering Lowell will be a FA, and they have the money, but I'm not sure ARod would want to play there. Detroit could use a 3B and they have money, but I don't like 5:1.

This really leaves me with only a few bets I would consider:

Philadelphia Phillies 9/1 (10%)
San Francisco Giants 10/1 (9.09%)
Field (Any Other Team) 5/2 (28.6%)

Philies have money, they're a good team, and need a 3B. SF has the money, needs a 3B, and may be looking to fill the "Bonds gap." The bet I like most is the field. There are 21 teams not listed - most of which have smaller payrolls, however. I think if there is any value here, it's probably on the field. I really hate betting on any of those above teams mentioned frequently in the media as potential ARod landing spots because I suspect Bodog would give insufficient odds on them.

Now, here's the part where you tell me my logic is bad. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: WTF, Bodog just closed this prop for betting.

[thing85]

Here's some additional analysis (waaaay better than mine) from BP: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=651

[domer2]

What was the maximum wager?

[rja87]

I wouldn't bet the Phillies they have 1 pitcher so any money they spend needs to be used for finding about 11-12 more.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
- LAD is also a possibility - another big market team with a need for a 3B and Torre as the likely manager. 22% chance is too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't realize this was your 2+2 name, mr. little, but i guess you have more time to post now that you're jobless. by the way, your former team still has this guy.

[rsigley]

i posted about this in the chatter thread, i ended up taking Angels +300, Giants +1000, Tigers +500

I disagree with the odds going down after the Renteria trade in that article from BP tho.

I think the Braves/White Sox were the only contenders from the field part. Maybe th eCardinals after reading the BP article, but I don't think thats a good bet.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
- LAD is also a possibility - another big market team with a need for a 3B and Torre as the likely manager. 22% chance is too high.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't realize this was your 2+2 name, mr. little, but i guess you have more time to post now that you're jobless. by the way, your former team still has this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I, Grady Little, have finally been revealed. My departure from MLB gives me more time to pursue my career as a poker pro.

Does the LAD organization really like Andy LaRoche that much?

[domer2]

yes they do

hopefully that line goes back up, shame the max is 100

[BRDSR]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the Braves/White Sox were the only contenders from the field part. Maybe th eCardinals after reading the BP article, but I don't think thats a good bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

White Sox won't pony up for ARod. If they had more money available and less holes everywhere else, maybe, but they've always been a team that will only raise the payroll a little at any given offseason and have never really signed the big free agent (albert belle, maybe).

So basically, I would cross off the field bet. Don't know who I would actually go with.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the LAD organization really like Andy LaRoche that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

do they? no.

should they? yes. it's pointless to spend $160 million for a-rod the next six seasons when he's worth maybe 15 wins over laroche in that span.