Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

[NajdorfDefense]

iPod sales ending this Q [12/31]
o24mm -130
u24mm -110

Apple iPod shipments were up 17% YoY last Q. Forecasts are as high as 29mm units. Avg forecast is 25mm units.

But, Apple was *unusally aggressive* in their revenue forecast which backs into the 24mm number, and if you know anything about *official* next Q forecasts, once they give them - they beat them about 95%+ of the time.

To get >24mm, they just need growth during Holiday season to be 19%, up from 17% during a seasonally slow Q.

Again, seems fairly straightforward. I make this line a value up to -180 and maybe higher. It's not that the analyst estimate is 25mm, it's that Apple went on record as saying they forecast 24mm [LDO]. They'll sell 24,000,002 if Jobs/IR Dept has to buy 100,002 himself.

And increasing the growth rate during the holiday 3 mos really seems like a slam-dunk. People who can't get a Wii or etc will get iPods for kids.

Oh - also they released the new iPod in Sept, right before Q started, so big pent-up demand there.'Jobs added new versions in September, including a video player called the iPod Touch that uses the same touch- screen technology as the iPhone.' This is basically the ipod phone-look version that does everything but make calls. I expect it will do well.

Profit this quarter will rise to about $1.42 a share on sales of $9.2 billion, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said in the statement.

Analysts had anticipated $1.39 in profit and sales of $8.57 billion, the average estimates in the Bloomberg survey. Apple usually gives a forecast that's below analysts' predictions.

``We're looking forward to our best December quarter ever,'' Oppenheimer said on a conference call. ``Apple is shipping the best products that we have ever made in our history. We're quite confident in the business, and we exited the September quarter with a lot of momentum.''

I can only put $65 on this, but I would put 6500 if I could.

tl/dr;
Oppenheimer - I HAZ LOCKZ!