Tilt Mulligan: Betgo?? You have some 'splaining to do.

[gobboboy]

The problem is that this situation is so marginal that you'll likely be able to find one just as marginally good several times in the next orbit but without nearly as much variance and without the chance of doubling up a good player to your right. Not to mention losing takes you out of resteal capability but winning doesn't really change anything from what you can do right now.

And since he might not be shoving junk here every time, his range is weighted, which is hard to account for in pokerstove and drastically decreases your equity.

No idea why you would do this when you could just wait till the next orbit when you have a hand that plays a lot better against his range than T7s. I definitely didn't think its equity would be as high as it is, but you're in the part of the tournament where your edge is greatest and that's the bad part to take slightly -cEV gambles for half your stack.

[betgo]

In some situations I agree that range is misleading, like if someone reraises you, he could have junk, but AK or KK are more likely. Here, I would think he is pushing everything in a certain range, probably top 50% hands + or -.

I don't think losing the gamble really puts me in a read situation, as I still have more than 10xBB.

The call is good for table image. I am not sure if I want to bust out out OP. I had position on him and was owning him bad. I certainly don't mind doubling him up, and giving him a good stack to resteal against.

I probably miscalculated a little bit on the call. I can't run through PokerStove while 8-tabling. I don't think it can be more than slightly cEV-.

As I said, read, table image, and tournament strategy come into play in borderline situations. I don't see what is wrong with making a loose call defending my blind.

[Eagles]

LOL what a terrible call.
For the call to be break even in terms of cev he has to be pushing

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL what a terrible call.
For the call to be break even in terms of cev he has to be pushing

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it against a top 60% range in Poker Stove, and I was getting the necessary odds. Villain has an M of 4.5, so why wouldn't he be pushing that loose OTB.

Even if it is slightly cEV-, isn't it advantageous if people know I will defend my blind.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,951,983,168 games 0.005 secs 990,396,633,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.347% 40.60% 01.75% 2010519528 86480382.00 { T7s }
Hand 1: 57.653% 55.91% 01.75% 2768502876 86480382.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

[mikeJ]

Fwiw, I am shoving around 40% of hands there.

You betgowned me in the 99 hand, but the only other time you won a pot from me was when I opened A2s on button, and you shoved from bb for 30+bbs. I dunno if that qualifies as "owning me bad".

I do think that calling w/ a T7s type hand has some merit, but I think ur hand is a couple notches too weak. If you had J9s or T9s for example.

I believe my shoving range is closer to 40% there, assuming no reads/std image, but I must've seemed very aggro, so I was dropping the worst hands out of my shoving range w/ you and sirwatts in the blinds.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
No idea why you would do this when you could just wait till the next orbit when you have a hand that plays a lot better against his range than T7s.

[/ QUOTE ]
And I have no idea why people assume they will get a better hand the next time around.

[gobboboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No idea why you would do this when you could just wait till the next orbit when you have a hand that plays a lot better against his range than T7s.

[/ QUOTE ]
And I have no idea why people assume they will get a better hand the next time around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm that good, Nath.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Fwiw, I am shoving around 40% of hands there.

You betgowned me in the 99 hand, but the only other time you won a pot from me was when I opened A2s on button, and you shoved from bb for 30+bbs. I dunno if that qualifies as "owning me bad".

I do think that calling w/ a T7s type hand has some merit, but I think ur hand is a couple notches too weak. If you had J9s or T9s for example.

I believe my shoving range is closer to 40% there, assuming no reads/std image, but I must've seemed very aggro, so I was dropping the worst hands out of my shoving range w/ you and sirwatts in the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are shoving 40%, I am 38% to win, and pot odds are 42% or something. You seemed real LAG, and I would probably shove 60% or more.

It probably was a marginally bad call. I didn't do the calculations right on the fly. However, it doesn't hurt to have it posted here so everyone knows not to push steal on me.

I had JJ when I restole on your A2s. I certainly didn't mind doubling you up and giving you some chips so I could resteal on you. I liked having a LAG on my right. Maybe I shouldn't have busted you out.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think you had guts to move in w/ anything other than JJ+/AK.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.168% 69.21% 00.96% 156425952 2171364.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.832% 28.87% 00.96% 65255448 2171364.00 { ATs }

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were actually getting 2.5:1, this is a call... you need 28.6% equity.