Hand & tournament endgame help

[CDAC]

Anybody with a good grasp of ICM want to help me with the shove vs. fold decision? Is is $EV to fold here?

[BarryLyndon]

There HAS to be reads here based on your image. This looks like your standard donk bet line with a 7, 5, flush draw, or mid pair 88/99.

The real thing here is ITM considerations. SB has 10K. I'm almost sure that you are WE/WB. If you lose this pot, you still have 20+ BB. If you RR and lose, you're toast. I think calling here is best.

If Villain has the balls to fire a second bullet, well, chances are he also has a nice hand. If he bets another 6K, it's going to suck so badly w/o reads. But given your range, you may need to call here and then get it in on the turn if he fires another smallish bet. You can really take massive advantage of this situation by calling as long as you have a plan for the turn.

Barry
PS: Pushing here can't be good because you are 50/50 AT BEST, or he folds whereas you can probably get to showdown without having to find out if you are WA/WB in an all-in situation where he never calls with worse.

Barry

[BarryLyndon]

Oh yeah, and when you call, call confidently. Call with a tone that you intend on making a strong decision on the turn.

[Popped Rod]

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I think shoving pre with 28bb is not optimal.

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Maybe not optimal during regular play but this is end game with relatively shallow stacks. TT may seem like a monster in shorthanded play PF but I still prefer to play it fast.

Your standard 3x bet is still offering BB over 2:1 to call with holdings such as KQ, QJ, AJ, KJ, JT, etc.

The reason I don't like smooth alling Villain's flop bet is because you haven't presented us with your plan for the turn card.

You most likely will not hit your set. If another overcard comes and he bets out will you fold or re-raise?

If it's another rag, what then? He may check, you check, then what on the river? Or he bets and you do what?


There is no reason for you to get involved too deeply with the other big stack with such a modest hand while there is still a shorty around.

My two cents, Rod

[postoakpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think shoving pre with 28bb is not optimal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not optimal during regular play but this is end game with relatively shallow stacks. TT may seem like a monster in shorthanded play PF but I still prefer to play it fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only hands that are going to call you (at least for SURE) are AA-JJ & AK, probably AQ. I can't say I like the equity vs this range.

As for the hand, his bet seems like a donkbet w/ a hand not containing a jack. If he had a J and he's confident that his jack is good and/or he's willing to go all the way with it, he'll CRAI instead of leading to get some more dead money in case you have a hand like AK/AQ and throw out the obligatory cbet. I push here, but that might explain some things about my weak game [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Another dynamic that you might not have considered, but I guarantee the BB has thought of, is how shortstacked the SB is. With an M of 6.66, the SB is getting pretty low. If you push here, the BB has to call knowing that you can eliminate him before the shorty busts. Most people HATE being forced to call for their tournament life when they've mentally said "that guy's so short, I've pretty much locked up the next rung on the prize pool." If he's thinking about how close he is to being heads up with you, your push will definitely bring him back to reality.

[CDAC]

[ QUOTE ]

Another dynamic that you might not have considered, but I guarantee the BB has thought of, is how shortstacked the SB is. With an M of 6.66, the SB is getting pretty low. If you push here, the BB has to call knowing that you can eliminate him before the shorty busts. Most people HATE being forced to call for their tournament life when they've mentally said "that guy's so short, I've pretty much locked up the next rung on the prize pool." If he's thinking about how close he is to being heads up with you, your push will definitely bring him back to reality.

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Yeah I thought about that too, but in the end I lost my nerve and called planning to shove any non-spade card that was out of his range.

Turn was a red queen, BB shoves. Hero?

[CDAC]

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Turn was a red queen, BB shoves. Hero?

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Okay so that is a silly question. I turbo mucked and second guessed my flop call.

I think that folding the flop was definitely the +$EV play. Just wish I had mentally gotten there before I put another 6K in. Thanks for all the viewpoints & advice.

Results oriented? I was still +$EV despite this hand when I busted shorty with QQ vs. his .....TT. Coincidence? Funny game sometimes.