$5HUSNG--Top 2

asg · #1 11-17-2007, 08:09 PM

Full Tilt Poker, $5 + $0.25 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 10/20 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: 1,370
Hero (SB): 1,630

Pre-Flop: (30) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to 60, BB calls 40

Flop: (120) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 80, BB calls 80

Turn: (280) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets 20, Hero raises to 200, BB raises to 1,230 and is All-In, Hero ???

tmcdmck · #2 11-17-2007, 08:17 PM

well from post i assume you called and got beat by the straight.

i know that i would call, i am such a station, but i must admit that turn action really really really makes the guys hand look like a straight. min donkbets are usually 1) gash 2) draws 3) the nuts. i doubt villain is shoving with 1) or 2) here, so i guess he has the straight.

in conclusion it is most probably a fold, but i know i would call, then swear at villain for taking such a stupid line, then hope to suckout.

RobMcB · #3 11-17-2007, 08:23 PM

Hero calls with fist pump and gets half way through yelling "ship i..." until he sees villain has JQ or 99. Hero cries for a just a minute before starting another one.

tmcdmck · #4 11-17-2007, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls with fist pump and gets half way through yelling "ship i..." until he sees villain has JQ or 99. Hero cries for a just a minute before starting another one.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah 99 is another possibilty i hadnt thought of. Rob's post sums up exactly how the hand goes.

mb6tour · #5 11-17-2007, 10:43 PM

Just to add some wood to the fire, villain bet may be a blocking one chasing a club-flush, then he got frustrated and shoved LOL yeah not likely... maybe he has it and is afraid of the flushes... That's tough spot babe

pokercurious · #6 11-17-2007, 10:45 PM

First of all, some reads would be nice.

Second, you need to win 1030/2740 = 37.6% of the time.

So go play around with various ranges in an equity calculator to see what he'd need to have to make this a call.

Keep in mind that the minbet-raise line is a pretty standard donk line with a huge hand, so his range given that line is much more likely to contain hands that beat you.

Given that he's probably trappy(maybe bluffy) and this is a "huge hand" line, let's look at your equity against 77-TT, AK-98 (this range includes a few hands (AK,KQ,88,98,T9) that you beat but a villain of this type might shove):

Board: 7c Kc Ts 9s

Equity
58.45% ( KdTh )
41.55% ( 77-TT, AK-98 )

So you should be happy to call here unless you think villain would minbet-shove with a different range of hands.

tmcdmck · #7 11-17-2007, 10:51 PM

pokercurious, do you really think that is their range? i would be absolutely shocked if it contained any of the combodraws you suggested, and would strongly weight it towards hands the turn improves.

pokercurious · #8 11-17-2007, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pokercurious, do you really think that is their range? i would be absolutely shocked if it contained any of the combodraws you suggested, and would strongly weight it towards hands the turn improves.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a fair point, so how about the following range: 77,99,TT,AK,JQ,KT,K9,T9,79,7T? This only contains the sets, the str8, and the 2 pair hands, which I think is reasonable (I even took out AK, which I think many $5 villains do this with):

Board: 7c Kc Ts 9s

Equity
54.04% ( KdTh )
45.96% ( 77,99,TT,JQ,K9,KT,T9,79,7T )

It's still a clear call. If you take out 79 and 7T, you basically become indifferent to folding or calling. This is only a clear fold if you think villain never does this with 2 pair.

Consider that villains at this level are often just playing their hands. A hand like 79 will often call a flop cbet and fold to a double barrel unimproved. Suddenly he hits his 9 and gets so excited he puts you on AK and initiates the donk-huge-hand-value-extraction line.

I would love to hear arguments for alternative ranges.

tmcdmck · #9 11-17-2007, 11:26 PM

ah well its not so much i think the hands in your rand are that wrong (other than the combodraws); just that I think the hand is STRONGLY weighted, ie he turns up with the str8 much more than any other hand in his range. his turn line is just a HOLY CRAP I HIT MY DRAW!!!! line for most villains.

pokercurious · #10 11-17-2007, 11:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
his turn line is just a HOLY CRAP I HIT MY DRAW!!!! line for most villains.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but I think he also thinks "HOLY CRAP I HIT 2 PAIR" with the 2 pair hands. No?

Put another way, how would you assign weights to the various hands in his range (i.e. given he has a certain starting hand, what percentage of the time does a villain take this line). Holdemranger allows you to use weights, so we can run some numbers with that in mind.