silentbob's NBA modified "chase" system

[silentbob]

I know there was a thread last month about the NHL chase system that folks are doing on TheRX. And I definitely understand the valid criticisms of what is more or less a blind Martingale.

What I'm throwing out there is not completely blind and based on two premises:

1) The Eastern Conference teams still suck relative to their counterparts in the West
2) West coast/Texas swings are more draining than east coast road trips

What I plan to do is "chase" 1 unit by fading on the moneyline any Eastern Conference team that's on a road trip of 3 or more games provided that at least two of the games are against Western Conference opponents.

Potential exceptions to the system:

1) Two of the weakest teams in the West are Portland and Seattle. I haven't looked at this year's schedules yet, but to the extent that there are three-game road trips where two of the games are against the Blazers and Sonics, I'll pass on betting the system here.

2) If an Eastern Conference team looks like they're gonna win 60ish games, I'll pass on their road trips. At the risk of sounding results-oriented, from what I can tell, only one East team has swept a West Coast trip during the last three years -- Detroit swept Sacramento, Phoenix, and Portland early last season. For this reason, I'm gonna wait about 20 games before blindly fading teams like New Jersey, Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago (likely the top 4 in the East this year).

Bottom line is that most Eastern Conference teams have only two of these trips a season, so this isn't gonna be a big-time system anyway. Don't tail me if you're actually looking to make the big monies. I'm simply gunning for 20-25 units. Given the inherent gamboooool of a chase system, I'm also using a much smaller unit total than usual.

One other risk, from what I can tell, is that some of the moneylines can be pretty hefty in the NBA (approaching -300 to -400). My guess is that in these instances, it would be games played in San Antonio, Dallas, or Phoenix. At this point, I just don't see any Eastern Conference team going through a southwestern swing undefeated. It hasn't happened in a very long time. And if such a team potentially emerges from the East, I'll pass when they go out west.

Comments welcome, especially if you can think of potential refinements. Feel free to dissuade me as well. If there are any other flaws/risks in the system that I haven't identified already, I'd like to know.

[MyTurn2Raise]

do you think it would be better to just go ATS on these picks?

[MyTurn2Raise]

your eastern/western breakdown is exactly what makes the NHL system work, so how is yours that different?

[silentbob]

My understanding is that the NHL chase system bets ALL road trips regardless of where they take place and what team is making the road trip? Please correct me if I'm wrong. Mine is geared towards a very narrow subset thereof.

As for betting ATS/ML, aren't NBA lines typically dead-on? Betting blindly against the spread, even on a favorable subset of games, seems like a tough hill to climb. I'm certainly willing to be convinced otherwise though.

[silentbob]

Here are all the eligible road swings for the season. Although Detroit is weaker without B. Wallace and Utah seems to be strong this year, I'm gonna pass on tonight. Lots of other opportunities in the next 5 months.

detroit - 11/6: UTA, SAC, LAL, GS
new york - 11/8: DEN, HOU, SA
toronto - 11/12: SAC, GS, LAL, DEN, UTA
charlotte - 11/14: NO, SA, ORL
chicago - 11/14: DAL, HOU, SA, LAL, DEN, PHI, NY;
philadelphia - 11/15: SEA, PHO, LAC
miami - 11/18: ATL, NO, SA
new jersey - 11/20: SEA, POR, PHO, LAL
washington - 11/21: DAL, HOU, MEM
indiana - 11/26: TOR, POR, GS, SEA, DEN, LAL
orlando - 11/27: UTA, SEA, POR, LAC, SAC, IND
milwaukee - 11/28: LAL, PHO, GS, UTA
miami - 12/2: MEM, LAC, SAC, DEN
atlanta - 12/3: POR, SEA, DEN, LAL, SAC
washington - 12/17: LAL, DEN, SAC, PHO
toronto - 12/19: PHO, LAC, POR, SEA
milwaukee - 12/26: SA, MEM, PHO
philadelphia - 12/26: GS, SAC, POR, LAL, DEN, UTA, MIN
boston - 12/26: DEN, LAC, GS, SEA, POR
atlanta - 12/29: HOU, SA, TOR
new york - 12/29: PHO, LAC, SAC, POR, SEA
philadelphia - 1/27: ATL, HOU, NO
miami - 1/5: PHO, POR, SEA, GS, UTA, LAL
cleveland - 1/9: SAC, PHO, LAC, SEA, POR, DEN, GS
orlando - 1/10: GS, LAL, PHO, NO
milwaukee - 1/19: SEA, POR, LAC, SAC
new jersey - 1/22: SAC, GS, LAC, DEN, UTA
charlotte - 1/26: LAL, GS, DEN
chicago - 1/31: SEA, POR, UTA, SAC, GS, PHO
atlanta - 2/9: PHO, GS, UTA, LAC, CHI
new york - 2/10: UTA, LAL, GS
cleveland - 2/14: UTA, LAL, TOR
boston - 2/20: SAC, PHO, LAL, UTA, HOU
toronto - 2/24: CHA, SA, HOU
orlando - 2/26: CHI, DEN, SA, DAL
charlotte - 2/26: LAC, SAC, POR, SEA, UTA, PHO
indiana - 3/2: PHO, LAC, SAC, UTA
new jersey - 3/4: PHI, DAL, HOU, SA, MEM, NO
detroit - 3/9: DEN, LAC, SEA, POR, PHO
boston - 3/16: DAL, SA, NO
washington - 3/20: POR, SEA, GS, LAC, UTA
detroit - 3/22: HOU, SA, MIL
milwaukee - 3/26: HOU, DAL, CHA

[MyTurn2Raise]

keep us posted

[MicroBob]

Is this pretty much just based on the tougher road-fatigue and time-zone adjustments or something?


Travelling to MEM and then OK (or NO) isn't exactly as draining as travelling all the way out to the west coast.

PHI's 1/7 trip doesn't look nearly as dangerous as CLE's 1/9 trip for example.