KQo small blind turn spot

efficacy · #1 11-06-2007, 08:55 PM

villain is 40/29/1.6 over large sample

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, MP calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

What is my play?

ryguy2fly · #2 11-06-2007, 09:37 PM

i'd probably bet/fold in this situation, usually pretty read dependent. Anybody else take a different line?

check fold river blank? eg any non Q K T?

NinaWilliams · #3 11-06-2007, 10:54 PM

I'd c/f. He has a pair too much when he calls that flop compared to the times he has T8 QT KT.

efficacy · #4 11-06-2007, 11:14 PM

How horrible is c/c ?

I gave villain a 25% range preflop and removed all hands he is not peeling the flop with, and assuming he bets all pairs and all straight draws on the turn we still have about 25% equity.

I c/c'ed the turn planning to c/c a K or Q river and c/r T river, c/f UI.

Please tell me how horrible this is. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

In hindsight I think I like b/f turn better because there is a reasonable chance villain will give up on small and medium pocket pairs. If I get raised on the turn I can safely assume my pair outs are no good so I can fold and feel good about it.

inferno · #5 11-07-2007, 06:32 AM

I dont think it matters that much, sometimes I bet here and sometimes I let it go

frenchpignouf · #6 11-07-2007, 12:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

In hindsight I think I like b/f turn better because there is a reasonable chance villain will give up on small and medium pocket pairs. If I get raised on the turn I can safely assume my pair outs are no good so I can fold and feel good about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know your games, but at party almost noboby folds 77 with a AKQJ board. The good palyers fold 77 on the flop, but if you know this player can have AND fold 77 you have to bet.

I don't like too much bet/fold because when we fold you have 7.5-1 to call with 2BB of implied odds (maybe a little more) and 4 outs 100% clean, it is close to a call. We lose around 0.8 bet in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
How horrible is c/c ?

I gave villain a 25% range preflop and removed all hands he is not peeling the flop with, and assuming he bets all pairs and all straight draws on the turn we still have about 25% equity.

I c/c'ed the turn planning to c/c a K or Q river and c/r T river, c/f UI.

Please tell me how horrible this is. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are c/c'ing and there is a K on the river you have to b/f imo. HJ doesn't look too tricky and doesn't vb a worst hand, but of course he doesn't fold a pair.

On the turn you have 5.5 to call, with a T on the river you implied odds are not far from 2 BB. If a K or Q on the river is good 50% of the time, your implieds odds are 0. So in this case your implieds odds are a little less than 0.4*2=0.8BB. So with this hypothesis your real odds are 6 to 1 with 7 outs, it looks enough.

If HJ bets a lot with a pair on the turn, I guess we can call. Can you compute with your range how often we win on the river with a Q or K ?

If HJ gives a lot of free card c/f is better because a K or Q has almost not value on the river. We loose too often a bet on the river to make a profitalbe call on the turn.

Moreover checking on the turn with this hand is a good balance with screwplay.