NL25: JJ in 3bet pot

[Cataract]

Villain is 13/7/1 over 200 hands.

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP1: $28.87
MP2: $4.91
CO: $4.65
BTN: $34.74
SB: $27.80
Hero (BB): $40.89
UTG: $26.48
UTG+1: $5.09
UTG+2: $22.27

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
6 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, BTN calls $2

Flop: ($6.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.75</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9</font>, Hero?

[ranka]

I would 3bet more preflop - 3.5 or 4. As played, bet more flop and I would fold because the villain is so passive.

And what is villain's att to steal% ?

[TRWIII]

With those stats, I somehow doubt that the villain is behind here, and if he isn't, you're dead in the water. If he isn't stealing, all you beat out of his range is 99, TT, AKs, AQs. If he has 88, QQ, KK, AA, you're crushed. This really comes down to his steal %. If he steals infrequently, I like a fold here.

TRWIII

[TRWIII]

Oh, and I'd bet closer to the pot size on the flop than I would to half the pot. It can discourage a blind stealer who is considering firing another bullet.

TRWIII

[RyanCMU]

I reraise a tad more PF.

Also, I bet closer to a PSB on the flop. The reasoning for this is that you want to take out of the variable that he is just raising because you have made a weak bet. I know it sounds wierd, however, it happens, and its a variable I don't want to have to consider or deal w/ because it can overly complicate decisions.

I hate folding here in steal situations especially in reraised pots. However, w/ no history w/ this TAG villain given, I think we can find a fold here.

If you have a history of 3betting him light or are running LAGy, or you guys have tangled lots in situations like this before, then we have lots of other options. Furthermore, we need to take stats like Att to steal into consideration.

However, as played its just not worth putting yourself in such a marginal situation by continuing let it go and move on.

[Cataract]

His att to steal% is 19. I don' t know whether it's a lot or not, I've just got poker tracker. I'm running at 20%. Anyway, I was pretty TAGy and we don't have a history. Thank you for your answers.

[mce86]

Id call and check the turn. Perhaps you improve or villians with those stats often get cold feet. If his feet stay warm, id probably fold.

[TheBad]

I bet 6$ on that flop, easy fold if raised. This bet looks weak to me.

[cheburashka]

[ QUOTE ]
With those stats, I somehow doubt that the villain is behind here, and if he isn't, you're dead in the water. If he isn't stealing, all you beat out of his range is 99, TT, AKs, AQs. If he has 88, QQ, KK, AA, you're crushed. This really comes down to his steal %. If he steals infrequently, I like a fold here.

TRWIII

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if we take your range as given, then we get:

Board: 2c 8c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.828% 49.94% 00.88% 160200 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.172% 48.29% 00.88% 154890 2835.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }

Plus, isn't there some likelihood that we could exclude AA/KK here, as someone with those stats would quite frequently 4-bet pre-flop, fearing a suck-out (that's me!!!)

Without AA/KK, we get:


Board: 2c 8c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.695% 61.56% 01.14% 153576 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 37.305% 36.17% 01.14% 90234 2835.00 { QQ-88, AQs+, AKo }


Just my $0.02

[TRWIII]

This is largely the issue I have with stoving hands. Yes, just looking at our hand versus his range leads us to believe that we are in good shape, but we are out of position and either way behind, or marginally to comfortably ahead. We are out of position and are in a quandary. If we shove, we are only going to fold out the hands that we beat anyway. If we call, then there are a crapload of cards I dont want to see on the turn and aren't going to know how to react to and we're sneaking up on being pot committed. Our position sucks and our hand is marginal. I still like a fold.

TRWIII