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#11
07-10-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
Obviously you need to reread your TPFAP.
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#12
07-10-2007, 03:59 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] Firstly, these high chip stacks early on are almost certainly playing a high variance style of poker. Whether good or bad, if this is their game then we at least know they aren't looking to sneak into the money and are willing to gambool, and this gives them an advantage over any solid, tight player to win it all. Sure, in a lot of cases a bad player can luckbox their way to the chiplead. But is this the case for the majority of chipleaders? I doubt it. All other things being equal, it's more likely that someone good would have more chips than someone bad. Granted I know the variance of poker almost entirely obliterates this in any one tournament, but if I had to guess whether the chip leader was a winning player or not, without knowing anything else, I would guess winning. Taking even money, this seems like a winning bet for sure. With 13% of the chips, I would take 12-1 any day for any amount of money I can afford (which, granted, isn't much these days). A fair bet I think would be a tad lower than 8-1 IMO.
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#13
07-10-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
All have over 150k chips, about 13-15% of chips in play, what odds would you make someone in top 50 winning? 8-1? 12-1? [/ QUOTE ] Let's see, about 6300 entrants * 20k, total 126M in chips, 14% would be about 18M. You're saying the top 50 average ~360k in chips? Something is off here.
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#14
07-10-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] All have over 150k chips, about 13-15% of chips in play, what odds would you make someone in top 50 winning? 8-1? 12-1? [/ QUOTE ] Let's see, about 6300 entrants * 20k, total 126M in chips, 14% would be about 18M. You're saying the top 50 average ~360k in chips? Something is off here. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he did the calculation assuming 10k starting stacks.
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#15
07-10-2007, 04:39 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
about 13-15% of chips in play [/ QUOTE ] I'd multiply this by 1.5 and get something like 3.5:1 against.
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