Variance

[gaming_mouse]

Hey Dean,

I wrote a sim program that to calculate these numbers. It bootstraps off real data, and just plays the hands in different random order, many many times. You can read about some results of my own data, or download the java and run it with your own data. No sense in guessing when you can get real numbers.

Original thread

Let me know if you need any help with it. I have not forgotten the young man who sweated me at no charge so many years ago....

Jonah

[The Bryce]

I've only skim-read this thread. This post isn't really directed at you Dean, sine we've pretty much had some discussions to this effect. In any case:

Everyone has this queer (as in odd, not homosexual) obsession with variance. So what? Whatcha'gonna'do'about'it? As a player and an observer it really does seem like the thing that separates the good players from the bad ones is that when the going gets tough the good ones are able to reflect objectively every day and ask, "What more can I do? And how would I go about doing it?" The thing that seems to separate the great players from the good ones is that those better players don't wait for things to get tough to get into this mindset.

Of all the top tier players we see go through these forums, how many of them are whiny bitches? Of all the guys who last and have been playing with black chips for years now, which of them do you ever see ranting and crying about all the things that could have gone better? That's the real lesson variance can teach us, not this whinny-ninny standard deviation stuff (no offense Gabe, it's still a good post). Knowing exactly how likely you are to swing how hard is absolutely useless information. Other than some basic bankroll management, there's nothing constructive you can do with it.

[SomethingClever]

Just wanted to chime in.... 500 BB downswing and a 170,000 hand breakeven stretch at low limits (2/4 6-max through 10/20 6-max, mostly 5/10). I am a solid winning player over a 500,000+ hand sample.

I quit limit last August and have been very happy with NL.

[PokerHorse]

Havent read every single post but, just a couple things.
First if your playing 1 million hands a year, and a winning player, having 2-4 1000bb downswings would seem normal, as joshw points out, and still make a ton of dough.
But i havent read anybody talk about the fact that you might be a winning player but still not have a big enough edge in the game your playing.Compound that with a bad run of cards and presto.
I think you have to be a truly great player, regardless in order to deal with these very tough runs. Without trying to be a jerk about it, I would say dean, that you might consider playing lower, because you have already said that a mere 450bb downswing would mess with your head. Again, I think you have to not justbe good, but be extrordinary to make it through those phases.And they will definately come.

[Schneids]

Dean I agree 1000% that most good players play way too long when losing and quit too quickly when winning.

I'd attribute a lot of my success in LHE to being able to quit a game when I get down, and to playing 6hr sessions when I'm running well/winning.

[Abbaddabba]

[ QUOTE ]
Havent read every single post but, just a couple things.
First if your playing 1 million hands a year, and a winning player, having 2-4 1000bb downswings would seem normal, as joshw points out, and still make a ton of dough.
But i havent read anybody talk about the fact that you might be a winning player but still not have a big enough edge in the game your playing.Compound that with a bad run of cards and presto.
I think you have to be a truly great player, regardless in order to deal with these very tough runs. Without trying to be a jerk about it, I would say dean, that you might consider playing lower, because you have already said that a mere 450bb downswing would mess with your head. Again, I think you have to not justbe good, but be extrordinary to make it through those phases.And they will definately come.


[/ QUOTE ]

If we're talking about high stakes 3 handed, then yeah - i can believe that.

Im not so sure it's a great idea for a small stakes, full ring player to extrapolate that and rationalize why it's perfectly normal for him/her to be down 1k bets.

[Squareview]

1000% agree. but who cares what i say because i only have 30 posts!

[allinonadraw]

great post...everyone who thinks they understand variance should read this.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
1000% agree. but who cares what i say because i only have 30 posts!

[/ QUOTE ]

More importantly you actually said 1000%

[johnnyrocket]

listen to schneids, as a younger buck i would maximize my losing sessions by playing longer and sit out too quick when running hot. Definitely not smart