Help with understanding pot odds

[Gurravasa]

we probably have 0-5 outs but if both villains is on draws and we have the best hand on the flop, all card that don't complete their draws are outs. For example say both villains have 89, then all cards except 6,8,9 and J are outs. Then you have 10 non-outs and 33 outs.

So you have somewhere between 0-33 outs, very useful...

[cjs]

What criteria do you usually use for outs? When I looked at it I figured the 7's were tainted because of hands like A7, K7 etc. I subtracted .5 outs. I thought all the 6's were clean. Now a str8 is enabled with a 6 so I guess they have to be discounted also. At 3 or so outs no calculation is necessary and it is a no brainer. I also agree the flop is the bigger mistake.

I guess I am looking too hard to justify a call because the river spikes a 7. This is just results orientated.

[nomdeplume]

To cjs:

You're being too optimistic in your estimation of your average number of outs. You need to discount for the following:

1. Your kicker is a low card which makes it more likely your two pair will be counterfeited by the river.

2. If you turn a six then anyone with 98 makes a straight.

3. You're out of position, which means you'll likely lose more when you improve to a second best hand.

4. You could already be drawing practically dead to a set or two pair.

5. You could make your draw on the turn, only to be outdrawn on the river by a flush, straight, trips or higher two pair.

Personally I start by assuming I have 4 outs, then discount to three if I can spot problems, or maybe up my outs by 1/2 if the conditions are good and I think there's a chance my hand is actually best (for example if I'm only facing a couple of opponents). I never value these draws at 5 outs, there's just too much that can go wrong in multiway pots.

In this particular case I'd give myself 3 outs which makes it a fold. If you call in spots like this often I think you have a leak. Drawing to second best hands can be expensive.

By the way, being rude to people who are trying to help you probably isn't +ev either.

[mvoss]

You have to take into account that bottom two pair is not the eternal nuts.

[mute]

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By the way, being rude to people who are trying to help you probably isn't +ev either.

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I might be missing something, but I didn't see OP being rude anywhere?

[nomdeplume]

[ QUOTE ]
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By the way, being rude to people who are trying to help you probably isn't +ev either.

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I might be missing something, but I didn't see OP being rude anywhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you're right, my apologies to the OP. I misinterpreted his "You can't play poker if you can't count". I need to improve my reading skills.

[cjs]

I'm sorry if I came across as rude. By no means was I trying to be rude. I was actually mocking myself because I added an extra out in my original post when adding 2 + 3 and getting 6 - .5 discount and coming up with 5.5 outs.

I think the posters here are wonderful and very helpful.

[nomdeplume]

cjs,

I know you weren't trying to be rude, I genuinely misinterpreted your response. Sorry, 100% my mistake.

[mvoss]

Then I apologize for calling you arrogant as well. Apparently I can't read either and made the same mistake nomdeplume did.

[Gurravasa]

"don't drink and post!"