Do I have the odds to go with this failed semi-bluff pre-flop?

[Insistent_]

This is in Swedish SEK. It is equivalent to 0.25/0.50 $.
I haven't played a hand for 3 or 4 rounds so I raised to represent AAxx and possibly get some more bluff equity on the flop. Since hands are so close in value I thought it was okay.

After skiteris call and Pjssons raise, I think it's pretty clear that he has what I was trying to represent - AAxx. My assumption is that I have something like close to 40% against him. With a third guy in maybe 30% (this is up to debate).

Can I call the first raise here with the odds I am given and the dead money in the pot?? What is the exact calculation for this?

Should I maybe assume the third player to call?? I think he has to with the type of hand he should have here (a drawing hand often). If he doesn't the money he looses by not playing must theoretically go into Pjssons pockets and possibly (if I choose to play) into mine. Right?

Also, if I really WAS going to play here, was it a good play just to cold call hoping to get away from some disaster flops and assume that Pjsson would be pot commited almost always? An Axx flop wouldn't be that hard to let go of often for example.

A lot of questions. I hope someone has the time to elaborate on this. Thanks and best regards!

2.50/5.00 Omaha (PL) - 11/21/2007 9:07:18 PM
Diana 32 (Vanlig/Cash Game)
Seat 1: Don_corleo (758.81)
Seat 2: Pjsson (456.91)
Seat 3: HERO (369.28)
Seat 4: skiteri (296.03)
Seat 5: magnus21 (521.03)
skiteri Pays SB 2.50
magnus21 Pays BB 5.00
** Dealing cards **
Don_corleo [N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A]
Pjsson [N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A]
HERO [9s, 7s, Qc, 9c]
skiteri [N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A]
magnus21 [N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Don_corleo Fold
Pjsson Raises to 17.50
HERO Raises to 60.00
skiteri Calls 60.00
magnus21 Fold
Pjsson Raises to 245.00
HERO Calls 245.00
skiteri All-in 296.03
Pjsson Calls 296.03
HERO plays for it all with fingers crossed

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope someone has the time to elaborate on this.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Insistent - I don't really have much time right now, but I'll sketch a reply.

[ QUOTE ]
HERO plays for it all

[/ QUOTE ]I don't understand. Does that mean you call the bet or you raise, all-in?

[ QUOTE ]
Can I call the first raise here with the odds I am given and the dead money in the pot??

[/ QUOTE ]No. Not in my humble opinion. The problem is there will be future bets. Thus you are only making a down payment on your total investment.

You could potentially be forced all-in. Since Pjssons has a larger stack than you, The cost to you could be $369.28 less the $60 you already have in the pot. In other words, the potential cost to you could be another $309.28, rather than another $185.

If skiteri folds, you could be risking $309.28 to win $500.
(from $372.50+$127.50)
In that case you're getting about 5 to 3 pot odds. (about 1.62 to 1). As simulated, heads up against aces the odds against you are about 1.71 to 1. Thus I'd say you very well might not have favorable odds to play. but it depends on whether skiteri calls or folds. If skiteri calls, then I think you have favorable odds to play.

<font color="blue">Edit: Hi. I'm back. I don't know exactly why you assume Pjssons has a hand with a pair of aces, but let's run a simulation assuming he does. And if skiteri calls a $185 raise, we should also give him some decent cards. But what? Yikes, we haven't even seen the flop yet! This seems totally guess gambling to me, rather than reading opponents and playing accordingly. But O.K., just to get an extremely crude idea, let's give
Pjssons A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and lets give
skiteri A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. There are thousands of other ways we could do this, but that way each player has a least one key card of another player, as often happens in Omaha. That's sort of opposed to the schooling effect in Texas hold 'em, where a lot of players seeing the flop tend to each protect the other more than have some of each other's outs. (whatever)

In that particular simulation,
Hero ends up winning ~22.2% and tying ~4.6%
Pjssons wins ~54.2% and ties less than 0.01%, and
skiteri wins ~19.0% and ties ~4.6%.

When you scoop, you win all the pot, and when you split here, you win half the pot less what you contribute yourself, very roughly, with three of you putting in big money, a sixth of the pot, plus you get your own money back.
0.222+0.046/2=0.245 is your pot equity. That corresponds to odds of 755 to 245 against you, or 3.1 to 1 against you.

Anyhow, if you could know that skiteri would go all-in, and that it would actually cost you $236.03 to see the flop, and if you and Pjssons checked it down the rest of the way, you'd be getting 659.56/236.03, or 2.79/1, or 2.79 to 1 implied pot odds to call.
(from 2.5+5+296.03+60+296.03=659.56)

Since the odds against you in this three handed simulation are greater than your implied pot odds, you don't have favorable odds to continue in a three handed game.

Thus you don't have favorable odds in a two handed game, if you assume your one opponent has aces, and neither do you have favorable odds in a three handed game if you assume one has aces and the other has this particular reasonable hand.

But who's to say if either of these two opponents have the hands we've given them. I'd guess it's pretty much a gamble and if these opponents know the game better than you, they're more likely to have the odds on their sides than you are to have the odds on your side.

What it boils down to in my mind is you really don't have a very good starting hand here and you would do better to wait for a better starting hand before taking a big gamble before even seeing the flop. I like to have the odds on my side before I put a lot of money into the pot.
End edit.</font>

You have a rather mediocre starting hand, despite the double suitedness, in my humble opinion. There are some experts who post here who would perhaps be able to turn a profit with your starting hand, but I think you should stick to more solid starting hands.

Those statements imply there are better starting hands and naturally you want to know what they are. Alas, I don't feel comfortable discussing this aspect of the game.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the exact calculation for this?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know. Seems impossible to me to calculate exactly. The problem is you don't know how much the hand will cost on the succeeding betting rounds, and you don't know how many opponents you'll be facing.

I sort of roughed it out above.

[ QUOTE ]
Should I maybe assume the third player to call??

[/ QUOTE ]Again, I don't know. I think it depends on the third player. I'd have to know the third player to even guess - and then it would just be a guess. It's best if you know your opponents and even then it's not always clear what they will do.

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't the money he looses by not playing must theoretically go into Pjssons pockets and possibly (if I choose to play) into mine. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]I guess you mean the money he has put into the pot prior to folding. Yes, that money goes to the winner.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if I really WAS going to play here, was it a good play just to cold call hoping to get away from some disaster flops and assume that Pjsson would be pot commited almost always?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think that is probably usually a very good way to play, but sometimes you can use that play.

No more time. I'm hurrying to finish this before we have to go. No time to check math. Hope I did it correctly, but maybe I didn't.

If not, sorry.

Buzz