EV playing short time in crazy games?

[lewdjunglist]

I have a question, but I'm going to give some background info first. Sorry if this is too long or the wrong forum, but I thought it best applied here.

There's a home game I've played in that has a lot of loose players pre flop. They will call raises of 10-20xBB often with junk starting hands. Straight draws (all kinds), weak flush draws, and BPGK/NK or MPGK/NK are often called for odds that aren't right IRT pot odds or implied odds. Usuall the game starts late in the evening, and goes until 2am-3am..ish. There are some tight players mixed, but most are passive. There are a few agrro or LAG players who are pretty decent. A few of the more agressive players often open to 17-25xBB preflop. Stacks range anywhere from 50BB-200BB, more often in the 100-150BB range though.

My question is, playing for such a short time (2-4hrs) with a solid TAG game..do you think this is profitable? Normally if there weren't the large BB preflop raises I'd say yes. The enviroment of the game seems like it would create high variance.

[Abbaddabba]

a solid tag game is profitable.

you probably arent.

[lewdjunglist]

[ QUOTE ]
a solid tag game is profitable.

you probably arent.

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you for such a great resonse....even though i've been winning in this game. i was hoping for more of a thoughtful reply. this question came up because of the enviroment of the game. when certain juicy players aren't there i know it's more of a long grind. obv my post was retarded though.

[tmcdmck]

no his response is less troll like than it seems. If you are not jumping for joy at the idea of deepstacks haappily getting in over a tenth of their stacks preflop then you are missing important understanding of poker. You may well be profitable, but it sounds like just having a vague idea of preflop play would allow this. Seriously though this game should be low variance mega profit if people are willing to open raise that much pre. it is just the amount of time you play for that will give a high degree of variance, but you cannot ever hope for no variance playing about 200 hands . . .

[ConsciousOne]

The amount of time you spend in a game will not effect your EV, only the possible variance. So if you are +EV in the game then it doesnt matter if you play 10 mins or 10 hours.

[blankoblanco]

think of all your poker play as one gigantic session. yes, there will be especially high variance between sessions in your case, but i don't see what that matters unless the stakes are too high for you to sustain. as said, you should be jumping for joy at this. of course a good TAG game in a game like that is profitable. over the long run, it's free money