25NL: Set vs flush?

UFGatorGuy · #1 07-22-2007, 02:28 PM

No reads, is this ever AQ/AK/something else that doesn't beat me? Comments on all streets appreciated, especially river.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($33)
BB ($21.85)
UTG ($32.75)
MP ($7.70)
Button ($20.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($1.95) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: ($1.95) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, UTG calls $1.50.

River: ($4.95) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.3, UTG raises to $12.5, Hero ???

Capone · #2 07-22-2007, 02:40 PM

Do you have any stats?

I think if he checked behind on this flop, and the way he just called the turn the flush is a big part of his range. If he had AQ he would have bet the flop here, or at least raised the turn same with AQ.

The only hand that makes sense here is a flush.

Capone · #3 07-22-2007, 02:40 PM

I'd like to hear other comments.

Fetzi · #4 07-22-2007, 02:48 PM

without reads its kinda hard to solve this hand... well i gues if he had a AQ/AK, he would have bet the flop, for flushdraw protection...

calling the turn also indicates a flushdraw..

AJ of hearts is what i think he has now.

A10Chief · #5 07-22-2007, 02:54 PM

I think he bets the flop with Ax of hearts as his equity is enormous. His checking the flop leads me to believe he doesn't have the flush draw and has AA-TT, with other crap being remotely possible. I think I call the river. All other streets are standard for me, BTW.

spivey · #6 07-22-2007, 02:56 PM

Villain has a flush draw most likely, and didn't bet flop because he didn't want to get check/raised.

I'd be surprised if villain had AhJh, though. I suspect it's more something like KhTh or KhJh.

A10Chief · #7 07-22-2007, 02:59 PM

The only flush draws villain would likely have would include a pair or a str8 draw of some sort, as his UTG raise indicates high cards. When I hold draws of more than 10 outs on the flop I am usually happy to get it in right there and I suspect this villain would be too.

crushednuts · #8 07-22-2007, 03:01 PM

Kh Jh is most likely. He checked behind fearing a c/r from the ace and then called the turn w/ a FD and an inside str8 draw. I also sincerely doubt he had the ace and the FD and checked that flop..

Spurious · #9 07-22-2007, 03:22 PM

Fold this is a flush too often :/

Capone · #10 07-22-2007, 03:45 PM

I cant see what he does this with besides the flush