OT: Winrates playing live WSOP satellites in LV

[yellowjack]

I'm trying to figure out my hourly rate playing the winner-take all satellites and am hoping you guys can help me out.

Suppose I am playing a $200 10-man satellite to a $2k event. Given how bad the players are, I expect to win 20% of the time. Also, I am assuming that the satellite will take 2 hours to complete.

Is the 20% too optimistic, pessimistic?
How about the length of time it will take to complete?

I plugged in those numbers and got the following:
winrate = ( 0.2*(+$1800) + 0.8(-$200) ) / 2 hrs = $100/hr

Thoughts?

Also note I have no idea on the wait time for these satellites.

[DevinLake]

20% seems overly optimistic. Something like 15% might be more realistic.

[Slim Pickens]

Attempting to play satellites with any amount of regularity would have been a baffling and frustrating ordeal last year. Sometimes there would be a line 40-deep for a $225/$175, dealers sitting at empty tables, and no way to connect the two since the one guy who's job it was to get the sats running was busy with floor duties at the second-chance tournament running nearby. Other times, there wouldn't be dealers because they'd be running massively-overbooked events 11-handed in the main area, having sent any extra people home not wanting to pay them. You can hope Harrah's pulls it's head out of it's butt WRT satellites, but I wouldn't count on it.