QJs a numbers problem.

[Bob T.]

So I finally get in the shorthanded 5-10 game, with 2 LAg players whose games cannot be described using any positive adjectives. ( if you can't figure out the last sentence, it means that they are both morons. Both of them are in the range of 70/25/3, with high loss rates. ) My first hand there are two limpers to LAG1, who raises. The button and SB fold, and I call with QJ of spades in the BB. LAG2 limpreraises from the UTG position, Coldcall, LAG1 caps it, and I call, as does LAG2, and the other player.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, LAG#2 bets, call, call, back to me.

I'm not sure exactly what is out there, but I figure that I probably need either my backdoor straight or backdoor flush, or running two pair or trips to make my hand good.

The pot is offering me 19-1 and I am closing the action, do I call? If I do, what is the minimum size pot that I can call for? If I don't, how much bigger would it need to be before I should call?

[Xhad]

How likely is it that the turn is also only one bet? If the turn goes to multiple bets I'm thinking that kills any of your draws except the BDFD since your BDSD is a gutshot. Since villains are laggy that doesn't seem that likely so I think I'd want more like 30SB to call this.

[Bob T.]

I suspect that it is at least 50/50 that the turn will go for one bet also. I guess that the fact that the flop was a single bet might mean that only one player got enough of the flop to actually bet, and it wouldn't take much in this field to make the flop go multiple bets.

[PokerBob]

call and tread very lightly on the turn. if you're good at poker, you turn the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Where the hell have you been??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[sean c]

Bob,

I think the problem here is your not going to have the chance to make up bets until the river and the Lags are going to have to be pretty bad to allow 3 or 4 bets in on that street if one of your backdoors hit. You really aren't giving anything up by folding the flop. This assumes that you only have 2 outs if you give your Q or J any weight here its a call.

[James.]

you have like 3 outs, call. i'm actually a little concerned at the other LAG not raising. often times LAGs are the most LAGgy when they are rather weak. his only calling the flop means something. i still call as we should be in a similar situation on the turn should the right card come often enough to be able to call profitably to even see the river.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're good at poker, you turn the T .



[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I wish I was that good at poker, I turned the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

This hand came up, and I remembered some math that I did about five years ago in response to a post. Anyway, the consensus then, was that you needed about 17-1 to breakeven on the call if you were drawing to double backdoor. I looked at this hand, said, Damn, I'm getting 19-1, I got an overlay!

I played, Turn, as I said, was the 9 of Spades, check bet, call, call, I call. River, There is the Ten of Spades, check, bet, call, call, Raise, call, fold, call. My opponents show AJ, and T9, and LAG#1 who limpreraised, and inflated the pot, starts a rant that lasts until he busts out.

[ QUOTE ]
Where the hell have you been???

[/ QUOTE ]

Busy, not making 12,871 fricken posts [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I just keep grinding away at the online 5-10 games, and playing a little live NL in peoples basements. Been running better than people say is possible for about a year and a half, but somehow, I never move up, although I am cherry picking higher games right now to give me the confidence to move up.

Oh, if your interested, I might be having a little tournament on Superbowl Sunday, that might have some side game action afterward.

Later,
BT.

[Jiggymike]

I was going to say fold but now that you showed you won the hand I guess I would've been "wrong." Against players that LAGgy, calling the flop for 1 bets isn't that bad because you can easily throw it away on the turn if you miss. I don't like to call a double backdoor draw every but with these super LAGs you can make up a lot of bets.

EDIT: I was thinking that if I had 55 here I would probably call getting 19-1, so if you can give yourself up to 2.5 outs for your draws, might as well.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand came up, and I remembered some math that I did about five years ago in response to a post. Anyway, the consensus then, was that you needed about 17-1 to breakeven on the call if you were drawing to double backdoor.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO the runner-runner gutshot+BDFD is different from a typical double backdoor. I'd have instacalled if you changed the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (even if we counted zero pair outs in the case of the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

[Bob T.]

I think your right. At the time, I thought that the ace of spades was a good card for me, because it meant that it was a lot more likely that my flush draw was the best one out there, but it makes the straight draw, a draw to the gutshot at best, so I probably needed better odds to call. As a side note, the presence of an eight or nine on the flop, would make the Ace nearly as good as a card adjacent to my hand, because of the double gutshot possibilities.

On the other side, the thing that I have going for me, is that this pot is four way, and the action is on my left, so that I probably have a good chance of making the most of my hand on the river,if I do get there.

As it played out, I captured 35 SBs on the pot, 19 that were in the pot, when I called, 6 on the turn, and 10 on the river. If I could get that return every time, I could make a profit on just the flush draw alone. I understand, that my hand is going to win only about one out of 16 times ( with all of the possibilities) , but I think closing the action in an inflated pot, makes peeling one here the right choice.