AA back-to-back

sui generis · #1 02-04-2006, 08:30 PM

I'll preface this post by saying that I have been running extremeley poorly today in terms of cards so I've been slightly more passive than normal. I wanted to make sure these plays were correct sans tilt.

Hand 1 -
Villians
SB - 84/7.4/.5 over 163 hands
UTG - 68/4.5/1.4 over ~20 hands.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero folds, SB calls.

THE VERY NEXT HAND...
Hand 2 -
Villian(s):
CO (primary villian) is a complete unknown. He has done some stupid plays in the past 20 hands though.
Button is 84/7.4/.5 over 163 hands

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, Hero folds.

I'm surprised i had two folds in me..

-eric

GME · #2 02-04-2006, 08:59 PM

I don't like either of these hands personally. Hand 1 is a clear call on the turn with 6ish outs and 8 bets in the pot after the c/r. I could go either way on the river UI, but folding wouldn't be awful.

Hand two I think you've got to 3-bet the flop and lead the turn. You can fold if you're raised on the turn.

sui generis · #3 02-04-2006, 09:05 PM

I don't see how I get 6 outs on hand 1. If I hit a K on the river, I have to reduce my expected winnings because of splits. If I hit an A on the river, then again I am behind anyone with a 9 or a K. I think I'm drawing to a K because I don't think I'm ahead of the check/raiser. So I have 4 outs drawing to a discounted pot... I don't think that is worth it.

hand 2 - you might be right. I actually am very confused on how to play overpairs/high pairs in a crowded pot on a monotone board.

-eric

GME · #4 02-04-2006, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how I get 6 outs on hand 1. If I hit a K on the river, I have to reduce my expected winnings because of splits. If I hit an A on the river, then again I am behind anyone with a 9 or a K. I think I'm drawing to a K because I don't think I'm ahead of the check/raiser. So I have 4 outs drawing to a discounted pot... I don't think that is worth it.

hand 2 - you might be right. I actually am very confused on how to play overpairs/high pairs in a crowded pot on a monotone board.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Eric, I don't want to pretend like I'm God's gift to poker or anything, and I know when you're running badly you have a tendency to expect the worst. But this mindset is not conducive to winning poker.

You're right that 6 outs is way too high in hand 1, I thought it was heads-up. At 4 outs in a 9 bet pot, you're getting just under good enough pot odds to call (Good # is 36, bad # is 37 if you've read King Yao). However, when you consider that villain could be raising with two pair and you could have many more outs, you've got to call here. Also, if you expect the third guy to come along you've got pot odds right there. And don't forget, the check-raiser could easily be bluffing or semi-bluffing at a scare card here. 1.4 aggression along with a 68 vpip indicate an aggressive player to me.

In my opinion, when you get back to back aces and you don't get to showdown either time, after being raised precisely once in each hand, you're letting the beats get to you.

ArturiusX · #5 02-04-2006, 09:25 PM

Peel the turn in hand 1, why no flop 3-bet in hand 2?

Dopey · #6 02-04-2006, 09:28 PM

Hand 1:

Im not folding that turn, and unless villian has A9 I think you have more outs than you think.
I think 6 outs is a decent estimation: K is close to 4 full outs, A worth at least 1 out, 9's are probably worth one out for split value and you probably have 1 out worth if the board pairs (conterfieting 2 pair, although you wont nessecarily know if a board pair would fill villian up or counterfiet.)
You dont give a read, and given stats I think I call down more often then not.

Edit - I also didn't realise it wasn't headsup, given that I still peel but a fold isn't as bad.

Hand 2:

I think HU I lead turn and fold to a raise, river is difficult if just called though (probably c/f). Someone suggested 3-bet flop, and HU I like it but am OK with sometimes calling flop intending to c/r safe turn (although I want a read to do that, it really sucks to have turn checked through if villian is on a flush draw)

Dopey
[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

sui generis · #7 02-04-2006, 09:37 PM

Hand 2 - My plan was to lead the turn on a safe card but another spade was pretty much the opposite of a good card. I folded because the CO was playing it like a made draw and the Button had called behind like a weak flush, both of which didn't look like they'd fold and still beat me. I think that if the button had folded I would have check/raised, but maybe not given my tilt.

Hand 1 - I'm starting to see that I should have called the check/raise and hoped for one of those cards to come. Over the longrun this will help. What is my river line if a blank hits? (I think its a check/call down if an A, 9, or the board pairs and its only one bet to me. Lead or check/raise if a K hits).

-eric