MORE EV HELP PLEASE

[Anthony Hadfield]

Hero: AcKc
Villain: JsJh

Flop: 7c4c10d

PokerTracker gives me % 54.44 win

Can someone show me the correct way to calculate this value, cause I seem to get it wrong.

thanks

[ChrisV]

pokenum -h ac kc - js jh -- 7c 4c td
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7c 4c Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 539 54.44 451 45.56 0 0.00 0.544
Js Jh 451 45.56 539 54.44 0 0.00 0.456

You are correct. Not sure what else u want.

[Route66]

You have 15 outs against JJ... 3 aces or 3 kings give you a bigger pair, plus 9 clubs for a flush. 15 outs with 2 cards to come is approx 54% equity on the flop.

The way to determine your equity over 2 cards is to calculate the odds of NOT hitting any of your outs on either the turn or river. On the turn there are 47 unseen cards, 15 of which will give you the win:

(47 - 15) / 47 = 68% chance that you WON'T make your hand on the turn. On the river there are 46 unseen cards:

(46 - 15) / 46 = 67% chance that you WON'T make your hand on the river.

Multiple the odds of both of those events happening:

.68 * .67 = 45.5% chance that you WON'T make your hand... which means there's a 54.5% chance that you WILL make your hand.

There's some minor fluxuation since he doesn't have the Jc so if that card lands on the turn he'll have 10 outs to fill up (3.5 to 1), or if you catch an A or K on the turn, he'll lose one out since only the Jd could give him the win.