Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL

[IShearSheep]

I think on the river you have to shove here. I don't see how there is any way Chubs checks ALL the way down here with kkk or 999 especially on the river. If he has 999 and he was afraid of you having kkk surely he can't think that anymore after you check the turn. And if he has kkk surely he bets the river EVERY time with this, since if he was trying to induce another bet by you on the turn and you didn't bite then I am guessing he would have to bet the river. If I had 999 here and I was him I would be trying to get money out of you in a sidepot because it is very likely Bears may have kkk here. I think Chubs has either poorly played AA here(by not 4 betting pre when it seemed very likely that he could be in a 5-way pot oop with AA) or ak. My guess is you checked the river and Chubs showed AA and Bears showed kkk and you immediately got up from the table and walked laps around the casino saying I knew my logic was right.

[IShearSheep]

By the way, are you the same duck butter that use to play a lot of limit on empire and party before doomsday?

[iRock]

This is an interesting hand. I check behind the river.

[TheCondish]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an interesting hand. I check behind the river.

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Check your gonna get check raised all in by 999

[soah]

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Hes been running really hot and caught up big time on a couple hands that he was way behind on. I get the feeling that he's tightened up a bit and doesn't want to lose the stack he's built.

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really important... in addition to the fact that tight and straightforward player went all-in representing a big pair, this dude called on a drawless board saying he can beat a big pair or has something similar himself, and then you overcall saying you think you can beat them both. I think you would have to bet extremely small in order to get him to call with AK; he'd basically be calling hoping to chop. Your hand looks huge here and it's a protected pot and he's not in the mood to make a big call anyway... so even though you are ahead here very often, you're not going to be ahead so much when he actually calls a big bet. The fact that it seems unlikely for him to play a bigger set this way has to be weighed against the fact that it's unlikely for him to actually payoff with worse.

[cero_z]

Hi duck butter,

C'mon Bro. He flopped top two or has AK. Put the rest in and hope he calls. Nothing else makes enough sense to have you check behind him twice.

[blainestar]

This thread is baffling. Why would the villain EVER check 99 TWICE?? I know it's cliche but if your not willing to bet this river after given action(you only have 3500 left in an 11K pot), you prob should play smaller or not play this deep.

[TheWorstPlayer]

the question is not whether or not he will check 999 twice. the question is, as always, are you ahead 50%+ WHEN CALLED. I don't think you are, so I would check. That has nothing to do with playing too deep or playing too big. That has everything to do with the opponent description and the texture of the flop as well as the preflop action.

[whorasaurus]

[censored]. i want to shove this river so f'n bad. But TWP is right, there isn't enough value from AA/AK, especially from a player like this.

I know this is above my stakes, but calling flop is a crime IMO.

Actually...

This is live, ppl do stupid things. Just jam it and pray he calls w/ AA/AK. I think you are good here ALWAYS. And your check-to-the-river-then-shove line looks fishy ===> profit?

[cero_z]

[ QUOTE ]
the question is not whether or not he will check 999 twice. the question is, as always, are you ahead 50%+ WHEN CALLED. I don't think you are, so I would check. That has nothing to do with playing too deep or playing too big. That has everything to do with the opponent description and the texture of the flop as well as the preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the answer is obvious; he usually will call with whatever he called 2900 with, though he doesn't really want to have to. That means he can't beat 222, most of the time.